Expert estimates Kentucky Derby 2018 morning line odds

Travis Stone, track announcer at Churchill Downs, obliged us in assembling a prospective morning line for the 2018 Kentucky Derby. Follow his other insights on Twitter at @TravisStone. In a former life I made the morning line at Saratoga. It’s a fun, challenging exercise that is truly thankless. I don’t envy Mike Battaglia, who as the morning line maker for the Kentucky Derby, constructs the most significant and critiqued line all year. I’ve never asked him, but I wonder what is more stressful: announcing the line or announcing the race! So for a little pre-Derby week fun, let’s take an early look at one version of a morning line for this year’s race... The initial task — identifying the favorite — is fairly simple. If Justify runs, he’s favored. Even the staunchest of Apollo supporters can’t deny his role as the top choice. American Pharoah, who was more hyped than Justify, was only 2.9-1 when the gates opened against a field not nearly as deep as this one. Therefore, I decided 3-1 was a good place to start. From there, it gets harder. In this year’s Derby, the other primary players are a tough group to separate: • Magnum Moon is undefeated from a Kentucky Derby-winning barn with improving figures. His open-length victories have been stout, although his Arkansas Derby was a fairly soft setup. • Bolt d’Oro has lost three races in a row, but he has some of the fastest figures in the race and was highly regarded as a 2-year-old. Oh, and one of those losses was to Justify, the likely favorite. • Good Magic is following a similar pattern that led to his resounding win in the Breeders’ Cup: third-off the layoff, improving figures. His trainer, Chad Brown, is almost always over-bet in New York, but does that translate to the Kentucky Derby as well? • Mendelssohn feels like a horse people are embracing because they want to sound smart touting the first horse to go from Dubai to the Derby winner’s circle. But, his familiarity from the Breeders’ Cup in addition to his gaudy win last time out (with a published Beyer speed figure as well) are also reasons he figures to garner support. • Audible has been awesome in his two wins so far this year and showed that he can adapt to various pace scenarios. His barn is respected, his figures are improving… there’s a lot to like. With Justify as the favorite, I believe that when the final horse is loaded in the gate, Mendelssohn is ultimately the second choice. He’s been touted throughout the winter and spring, has proven he can travel, boasts a big win on paper and his international appeal will only help. And for those having a hard time deciphering the American contingent, he’s the perfect alternative. I would make him 6-1. Now we’re left with this group: Audible, Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic and Magnum Moon. I believe by post time there is a chance three of these horses are single digits. In traditional morning line making, however, you follow certain patterns. For example, even though one or two of them might go off at 7-1 or 9-1, in order to conform to the “norms” of a morning line, they have to be 8-1 or 10-1. Said differently, on the line two of these four horses have be 10-1, which seems high, but such is the Derby. I think Magnum Moon will end-up the clear third choice in this race but will put him as co-third choice with Good Magic. Trainer Chad Brown has been quietly confident since the Blue Grass and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner always gets some attention. I would make these two horses 8-1. Bolt d’Oro and particularly Audible have been lost in the shuffle a bit. In my experience, when one horse loses to another, such as Bolt d’Oro to Justify, in prior races the public tends to look elsewhere. As for Audible, there’s this thought: When making lines, the public often picks between a trainers’ multiple entrants. I believe Audible will be the public’s second-best Pletcher option and will be bet accordingly. These two are 10-1. And speaking of Pletcher, his third entrant, Vino Rosso, feels solid at 15-1. Now for the longshots... On top of deciphering this competitive and deep field, the Kentucky Derby is bet unlike any other race throughout the year. Last year, for example, the longest shot in the field was Untrapped at 58-1. In 2016, Majesto was the longest price at 56-1. When American Pharoah won in 2015, the longest price was Frammento at 69-1. All three of these horses were more likely 100-1 shots in terms of true odds, but because of all the betting from the general public that likes to play big longshots in the Derby, their actual win odds were much lower. With that in mind, and in keeping with tradition, options for longshot odds are slim pickings: 20-1, 30-1 and 50-1. Fortunately, I believe the remaining horses this year fall clearly place... The 20-1 group seems fairly obvious: Hofburg, Noble Indy and My Boy Jack. The 30-1 group feels like Solimini, Enticed, Free Drop Billy, Flameaway, Promises Fulfilled and Lone Sailor. (Two of these horses could go down to 25 or lower, but there is no 25-1 on a traditional morning line). And finally, the 50-1’s include Instilled Regard, Combatant, Bravazo and Firenze Fire. So here’s what my line would like…

When the pools finally open, the wagering activity on Mendelssohn, Good Magic and to a lesser extent Bolt d’Oro will be key. Inevitably there will be a horse taking significantly more money than anticipated and visa-versa. Forecasting such movement is harder than picking the winner, which is hard enough by itself. I’m glad I just have to call the race. Good luck!

Morning Line Math The math behind the morning line is fairly simple. For each horse, the odds you assign them are given points determined by this formula: 100 / (odds+1). For example, if you make a horse 5-1, the number of points would be 100 / (5+1) which is 100 / 6 or 16.66. You then add all the points for the race. My preference is to keep the total points for all horses in the race below 130. For the math-obsessed, the line above adds to 129 points.