Expert Picks: 2022 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn
The $1 million Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park is set to offer its top four finishers Kentucky Derby points in 50-20-10-5 payouts. Here is how Horse Racing Nation’s staff and contributors are playing the race.
Sara Elbadwi
Winner: #4 Un Ojo
On the board: #8 Chasing Time
Long shot I like: #6 Stellar Tap
Analysis: Taking a shot against Newgrange with Un Ojo who ran well last out to finish second behind Early Voting in the Withers. Gets pace ahead of him to close in for the win.
Mike Shutty, Super Screener
Winner: #2 Newgrange
On the board: #7 Ben Diesel
Long shot I like: #5 Texas Red Hot
Analysis: Newgrange meets similar to what he conquered in the Southwest with no monsters lurking in the wings. Presses a similar pace set up as well and offers the best late stamina profile of the other runners in the race. Ben Diesel has been hampered by less-than-ideal trips in his last two efforts. Moves forward here with a better trip anticipated. Texas Red Hot has matured off the long layoff and seeks to repeat his previous top off the break here supported by a razor sharp recent work. Gets pace to close into.
Jarrod Horak, Best Bets
Winner: #2 Newgrange
On the board: #6 Stellar Tap
Long shot I like: #10 Ethereal Road
Analysis: Newgrange just defeated similar in the Southwest despite not running his best race. The 3-for-3 colt owns early-pressing versatility and drew an advantageous inner post. Stellar Tap can move up after an even 3rd in his Fair Grounds return. Ethereal Road showed a nice late kick in his local dirt route maiden win. Wagers: Trifecta 2/6-10/ALL, Trifecta 2/ALL/6-10
Ron Flatter
Winner: #2 Newgrange
On the board: #3 Cairama
Long shot I like: #10 Ethereal Road
Analysis: With a graded-stakes record of 2: 2-0-0, Newgrange is in a class by himself in this field that is otherwise 8: 0-2-1 at the same level. His forward style also fits the pattern of seven of the last nine winners of the Rebel. Looking for prices underneath, I will turn to Cairama, who impressively bounced back from a poor start to make up seven places and nearly 12 lengths in the slop of the Smarty Jones. Ethereal Road passed the eye test by making up 20 lengths to break his maiden over the same course and distance as Saturday's race, so he will be in the lower part of my exotics.
Candice Curtis
Winner: #2 Newgrange
On the board: #9 Barber Road
Long shot I like: #5 Texas Red Hot
Analysis: Newgrange is hard to look past with his superior speed, and Barber Road has made a career of running second. An interesting longshot to use underneath is #5 Texas Red Hot, who should get a stiff pace to run at and will definitely be a price.