Expert Picks: 2022 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds

The Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds is set to offer its top four finishers Kentucky Derby points in 100-40-20-10 payouts. Here is how Horse Racing Nation’s staff and contributors are playing the race.

Sara Elbadwi

Winner: #2 Zozos

On the board: #6 Epicenter

Long shot I like: #8 Galt

Analysis: 2-Zozos jumps onto the Derby scene after 2 wins in as many career starts. Trainer Brad Cox comes prepared for the Louisiana Derby, historically having won at 29 percent over the past 5 years on the big day. 6-Epicenter is a deserving favorite and early speed is his game, but Zozos may sit a perfect stalking trip. Toss out 8-Galt's last race where he fell in the Fountain of Youth and he has every shot to improve here.

Ed DeRosa

Winner: #5 Kupuna

On the board: #7 Pioneer of Medina

Long shot I like: #1 Grantham, #6 Golden Glider

Analysis: Kapuna will need Epicenter to come back to him, but at 1 3/16 miles in a million-dollar race where most of the field needs points, will gamble that there is enough aggression early for Hard Spun colt to be rolling late under Reylu Guttierez.

Jarrod Horak, Best Bets

Winner: #6 Epicenter

On the board: #7 Pioneer of Medina

Long shot I like: #2 Zozos

Analysis: Deserving favorite Epicenter is the fastest horse on paper, and he should control the tempo as well. Improving Pletcher runner Pioneer of Medina chased Epicenter in the Risen Star, and a pair of very good horses rallied late to knock him out of the trifecta. Zozos won both starts for Brad Cox and has upside. Kupuna fired in both dirt routes this year and is working well for this. Wagers: Exacta 6-7, Trifecta Key 6/2-5-7

Candice Curtis

Winner: #7 Pioneer of Medina

On the board: #6 Epicenter

Long shot I like: #4 Curly Tail

Analysis: Pioneer of Medina has a shot to outlast Epicenter at this 1 3/16 distance. The pace should be swift enough to help the closers, and Curly Tail will be a much bigger price than Call Me Midnight among the late runners. 50-cent TRI: 7,6 / 6,5 / 4,3,9

Reinier Macatangay

Winner: #6 Epicenter On the board: #2 Zozos, #3 Call Me Midnight, #9 Rattle N Roll Long shot I like: #4 Curly Tail Analysis: Epicenter shows nothing quality performances in his four route races. After breaking his maiden last November at Churchill Downs, Epicenter won the local Gun Runner Stakes, ended up second by a head after setting a fast pace in the Lecomte Stakes, and then won in the Risen Star Stakes last month over the respected Smile Happy in second. Epicenter can either win by setting the pace or sitting off the pacesetter, giving him the advantage from a tactical standpoint as well. Single Epicenter in multi-race wagers, or key him in a trifecta wheel while throwing in a longshot or two underneath to make the ticket more interesting. Win: 6 (at even money or higher)

Trifecta wheel: 6 / 2,3,4,9 / 2,3,4,9 Ron Flatter Winner: #6 Epicenter On the board: #3 Call Me Midnight Long shot I like: #2 Zozos Analysis: If this were a repeat of the Lecomte, Call Me Midnight could pounce on an early speed duel and pick up the pieces at the end. But this looks more like a repeat of the Risen Star, in which Epicenter seized on a loose lead and held it all the way around the track. Zozos will provide some company early, but he does not look like anything more than someone who might hang around late for a piece of the money at the end. Pacesetters won this race the first two times it went 1 3/16 miles. Epicenter should make it three.