Expert picks: 2021 First Lady offers field packed with options
The First Lady (G1) at Keeneland on Saturday features 10 graded stakes winners facing off for a fees-paid berth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Here is how the staff at Horse Racing Nation will be playing the race.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: #9 Blowout
On the board: #3 Althiqa
Long shot I like: #2 Empress Josephine
Analysis: Blowout is a candidate to secure an uncontested lead through a slow pace and might separate enough to hang on in the stretch run. Even though she faded to fourth in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1) at Saratoga in her last start, the trifecta miss is forgivable given she faced Grade 1 males and Got Stormy, who loves Saratoga. Besides Blowout, Althiqa looks capable based on her two recent wins in the Just a Game Stakes (G1) at Belmont and Diana Stakes (G1) at Saratoga.
Empress Josephine exits a fourth-place finish in the Matron Stakes (G1) overseas at Leopardstown in Ireland and might fire in her first start over here.
Jarrod Horak, Best Bets
Winner: #6 Regal Glory
On the board: #8 Harvey's Lil Goil
Long shot I like: #5 Hendy Woods
Analysis: Regal Glory finished full of run in the restricted De La Rose last time, and the flat mile specialist should be lurking behind the speed. Harvey’s Lil Goil fired big shots in both local turf attempts last year. She might finish full of run in this shorter race. Althiqa exits back-to-back wins in this country in the Just a Game and Diana. Hendy Woods is a flat mile lover exiting a strong win in a restricted stakes. Wagers: #6 to Win; Exacta 6/3-8; Exacta 3-8/6; Trifecta 6-8/3-5-6-8/3-5-6-8
Ron Flatter, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: #3 Althiqa
On the board:#13 Viadera
Long shot I like: #11 Dalika
Analysis: In a race that may be better than the one it is feeding at the Breeders' Cup, it is hard to look past the hot hand Charlie Appleby has been playing, especially with Althiqa winning twice at the Grade 1 level here in America. Viadera carries the value of being the "other Chad." Dalika should respond to the softer ground at Keeneland.
Candice Curtis
Winner: #3 Althiqa
On the board: #6 Regal Glory
Long shot I like: #5 Hendy Woods
Analysis: Althiqua has proven dominance in the US and should take this on her way to the BC. Chad Brown's Regal Glory will get the pace setup thanks to her stablemate, Blowout, and I'll be using her in second/ third on my tickets. Hendy Woods is coming in from a win at Kentucky Downs and is a live long shot with that prep experience.
Brad Stephens, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: #9 Blowout
On the board: #5 Hendy Woods
Long shot I like: #4 Star Command
Analysis: Trainer Chad Brown has won the First Lady Stakes each of the last three years. Now Brown saddles Blowout, who is the speed in a race with a pace projection favoring a runner on or near the lead. In 13 career starts, her only finish out of the money came in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1), where she faced males. I don't know if we'll actually get the morning-line price of 8-1, but anything near that seems like a steal.