Expert Picks: 2022 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn
The Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn is set to offer its top four finishers Kentucky Derby points in 100-40-20-10 payouts. Here is how Horse Racing Nation’s staff and contributors are playing the race.
Sara Elbadwi
Winner: #6 Secret Oath
On the board: #9 We the People
Long shot I like: #1 Kavod
Analysis: Secret Oath has better Beyer figures than this group of colts and is a deserving favorite. One concern could be the lack of speed in here, which could benefit Kavod taking the blinkers off if he settles early and saves enough for the stretch. Un Ojo's Rebel was no fluke, but Secret Oath and We the People look like legitimate challengers and seem better than horses he beat in that field.
Ed DeRosa
Winner: #8 Cyberknife
On the board: #9 We the People
Long shot I like: #3 Barber Road
Analysis: I have more respect for the filly in this spot than my answers would indicate, but it's impossible to see her being an attractive wagering proposition given the hype. Cyberknife turned the corner last out and a continuation of that development makes him the one to beat here.
Jarrod Horak, Best Bets
Winner: #4 Doppelganger
On the board: #6 Secret Oath
Long shot I like: #8 Cyberknife
Analysis: Secret Oath could easily defeat the boys in this spot as the likely favorite, but I will side with Doppelganger. The latter was never catching Forbidden Kingdom in the San Felipe, but that clear runner-up finish was a step in the right direction. He can move forward again in his third start after a layoff. Cyberknife and We the People can be used as well. Wagers: #4 to Win, Exacta 4-6, Trifecta 4-6/4-6-8-9/4-6-8-9
Reinier Macatangay
Winner: #9 We the People
On the board: #6 Secret Oath
Long shot I like: #8 Cyberknife
Analysis: We the People shows two easy route wins in two local starts, including an impressive five-length maiden win and another impressive five-length optional claiming win a few weeks ago. This son of Constitution likes to sit right off the leader, which should put him in the perfect spot next to the expected pacesetter Kavod. Once Kavod starts to fade, We the People will likely build some separation before Secret Oath starts to seriously threaten. If We the People fails to fire, then expect the filly to get the job done with a popular win.
Win: 9 (at 3-1 or higher)
Exacta: 9 / 6 (either straight or a box if the payoffs are higher than expected)
Laurie Ross
Winner: #6 Secret Oath
On the board: #9 We the People
Long shot I like: #2 Chasing Time
Analysis: Secret Oath outclasses the field. We the People has one of the best nine furlong pedigrees in the field, look for a big effort from him. With a good trip Chasing Time could finish in the top four. Give Un Ojo respect for his last two efforts.
Ron Flatter
Winner: #6 Secret Oath
On the board: #3 Barber Road
Long shot I like: #4 Doppelganger
Analysis: Favorites have not lost a Kentucky Derby prep in the U.S. since February. Secret Oath brings the early speed that the last five Arkansas Derby winners have displayed. She also gets a weight break that could make the difference in a close race. Barber Road should benefit from the extra distance while making up ground at the end. Doppelganger has had excuses, so if he eliminates those, he should have the speed to hit the board.