Derby handicapping tool shows new names, same top horses

Note: The conclusion of this story showing the three horses who met all the criteria described was corrected from an earlier post.

The Final Fractions Theory that has been proven beneficial in identifying Kentucky Derby contenders for three decades has become more splintered this year with the addition of two horses who took an abnormal turn to Churchill Downs.

Tawny Port and possible entrant In Due Time did not race most recently in a 1 1/8-mile race. Instead, they finished first and third, respectively, in the 1 1/16-mile Lexington (G3) at Keeneland. No Derby winner has done that since Charismatic in 1999.

Free Brisnet past performances for Kentucky Derby 2022.

By going less than nine furlongs in their most recent race, Tawny Port and In Due Time skewed the Final Fractions Theory, which extrapolates closing times to see whether a horse may compete successfully through the Kentucky Derby’s 10th furlong.

The theory, which was developed by Louisville turf writer turned publicist Jennie Rees, asks whether a horse raced the last furlong of his last prep in 13 seconds or less – or the last three furlongs in 38 or less. Horses for which the answer was yes to either question have won 27 of the last 31 springtime renewals of the Derby.

That formula has worked well for 1 1/8-mile races, but it is a cautionary tale at 1 1/16. It is one thing to extrapolate an educated guess for the added 220 yards of the Derby. To try and do that for the 330 yards that must be added to the Lexington makes for dubious guesswork at best.

For what it is worth, Tawny Port ran the last 110 yards of the Lexington in 6.35 seconds. Presuming he would have run at exactly the same pace for another 110 yards, that would give him a final furlong of 12.7. While it is under the 13-second threshold for the Final Fractions Theory, it is a shaky projection. His last 550 yards went in 32.34, which would be extrapolated to a final three furlongs of 38.8, missing that check mark by 0.8 seconds.

In Due Time’s projected final furlong of 12.9 also falls within the theoretical 13.0, but his extrapolated final three of 39.2 make for a bigger miss. An even bigger problem for him is that, unlike Tawny Port, he never has raced 1 1/8 miles.

Trainer Brian Lynch’s decision to bring Classic Causeway back into the Kentucky Derby came in spite of poor final splits in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1). A last-place finish yielded closing fractions of 15.8 and 43.6, discouraging figures when weighed against the theory’s historic application.

When examining the current top 22, Tawny Port, In Due Time and 10 other horses fill the Final Fractions Theory bill. Newly listed among them is Pioneer of Medina, who is 21st in qualifying and needs one current top-20 horse to drop out in order to get into the starting gate. Extrapolated or not, these were the final one- and three-eighths times for the Derby candidates.

The Louisiana Derby (G2) and the UAE Derby (G2) complicated the traditional application of the theory because they were 1 3/16 miles each, requiring further mathematical tweaks. The Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) got asterisks because of the synthetic track, which was a proving ground in 2011 for Animal Kingdom. The race also was the last exception to the Final Fractions Theory before first-place finisher Medina Spirit and promoted winner Mandaloun defied it last year.

Three other criteria were added to the Final Fractions Theory to winnow the list of would-be Derby contenders even more.

In the last eight years, according to Brisnet, only horses with Quirin Speed Points designations of E (early) or E/P (early presser) – meaning on or near the early lead – finished first in the Derby. Thirteen of the current Derby top 22 filled that bill, but Epicenter, Zozos, Early Voting, Taiba, In Due Time and Messier were the only ones who also cleared the Final Fractions Theory hurdle.

A previous best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95, according to Daily Racing Form, fit the profile of 27 of the last 30 Derby winners as declared on race day. The same could be said for a Brisnet Speed Rating of at least 100, which applied to 18 of the last 22 cashable Derby winners.

After weighing all the criteria, only Epicenter, Taiba and Messier remained, as shown on this chart that includes Final Fractions Theory check marks, Quirin Speed Points, best Beyer Speed Figures and best Brisnet Speed Ratings.

This should hold – unless and until someone from outside the current top 22 gets into the Derby.