European Road to the Kentucky Derby picks up this week

After a four-month hiatus, the European Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby resumes this week with a pair of qualifiers in Great Britain and Ireland worth 20-8-4-2 points to the top four finishers.

There are some promising names in the entries, so let’s take a quick look through the prospective fields and highlight the main names to know:

Wednesday

Kempton, Great Britain, Race 5: Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (one mile, 1:00 p.m. EST)

Although the Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby starter, it has come close. The 2018 winner Gronkowski was slated for a start in the Derby until a fever forced him to skip the race; he later finished second in the Belmont Stakes behind Triple Crown winner Justify.

Seven horses are slated to contest the 2022 Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes, though none have been nominated to the Triple Crown. The slim favorite in the early betting is Harrow, whose sire El Kabeir won a trio of graded stakes on the 2014-15 Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Harrow has raced exclusively on turf so far, cracking the trifecta in six of his seven starts for trainer Andrew Balding. He was last seen finishing third in the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket on Sept. 23, a race won by future Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) hero Modern Games.

Harrow has shown improvement in every start, so if he’s ready to roll off the layoff, he can visit the Kempton winner’s circle and potentially join the Derby trail as a late Triple Crown nominee. After all, El Kabeir was a dirt star, so tackling the Churchill Downs main track won’t necessarily be a bridge too far for Harrow.

The other key contender in Wednesday’s field is Blue Tail, a Godolphin homebred conditioned by Charlie Appleby. The son of Teofilo is bred to be a grass star, but his form over synthetic tracks is encouraging. After finishing second in his Jan. 13 debut racing one mile at Newcastle, Blue Tail traveled to Southwell and promptly dominated a similar race by 4 3/4 lengths. The bay colt has plenty of upside and can’t be dismissed from consideration.

Friday

Dundalk, Ireland, Race 7: Patton Stakes (one mile, 1:00 a.m. EST)

Unlike the Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes, the Patton has produced a Kentucky Derby starter. In 2018, Mendelssohn won the Patton on his way to competing at Churchill Downs, though he technically qualified via his victory in the UAE Derby (G2) on the main Road to the Kentucky Derby.

The final field for the Patton has yet to be drawn, but the early entries include Absolute Ruler, a Triple Crown nominee hailing from the barn of Donnacha O’Brien.

Absolute Ruler brings an intriguing pedigree to the fold. Sire War Front is a versatile stallion known for siring major winners across all surfaces; this tendency is exemplified by War Front’s Preakness-winning son War of Will, whose obvious dirt prowess didn’t preclude him from winning the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) on grass.

But the bottom half of Absolute Ruler’s pedigree is all about the turf talent of superstar sire Galileo, whose progeny have almost exclusively performed best on grass. Absolute Ruler was produced by Galileo’s daughter Together Forever, best known for winning the Dubai Fillies’ Mile (G1) over the Newmarket lawn.

All this is a roundabout way of saying Absolute Ruler’s pedigree is geared toward success on grass, which makes his Triple Crown nomination all the more interesting. It’s easy to see why Absolute Ruler has been entered in the Patton; he won his debut over this track and distance last summer, and he later displayed enough talent to run third (beaten less than one length) in the Champions Juvenile Stakes (G2) on turf at Leopardstown.

Absolute Ruler was last seen faltering to 10th place in the seven-furlong Star Appeal Stakes on Oct. 1 at Dundalk, but he has been freshened since then and ought to fire a competitive shot while returning to the configuration of his maiden victory.

The only other proven group stakes type in the Patton field is Juncture, runner-up in the Frank Conroy Silver Flash at Leopardstown last summer. But the daughter of Dark Angel has never run on synthetic or farther than seven furlongs. If Absolute Ruler runs to his best in the Patton, we might be looking at a future Kentucky Derby starter.