DeRosa: Enigmatic Crown Pride makes Ky. Derby puzzle fun

Crown Pride is the Kentucky Derby horse I love to hate.

That's not really fair, though, because I could never hate a horse. But I do hate him as a wagering option in this year's Derby.

Or do I?

Crown Pride is 30-1 on Travis Stone's morning line. Reminder: the morning line is a projection of how the public will bet the race, and not a prediction of who will win.

Based on my fair odds, Crown Pride is a certain underlay come post time. But I'm starting to wonder just how much money he's going to take because, based on the futures betting market that Ron Flatter covers so well, the Japan-based U.A.E. Derby winner is by no means a market mover.

The reason I don't like him is pretty straightforward: I don't trust the UAE Derby (G2) as a Kentucky Derby prep. Yes, horses race in Dubai and return to the top of their game all the time, but other than for the Kentucky Derby, it doesn't happen on six weeks of rest. The sample size also includes mostly older horses versus 3-year-olds.

And yes, Japan-based horses have done extraordinarily well recently, with multiple victory successes on both the Breeders' Cup and Dubai World Cup cards. But again, none of those wins involved a 3-year-old traveling halfway around the world to run 1 1/4 miles on six weeks of rest.

Maybe the Japanese methods are just better than everyone else's? That's possible. I probably was overly aggressive with my 150-1 fair odds line. I can say for certain that if Travis is right and Crown Pride is 30-1, it's a definite pass for me, but it's piquing my interest that the wagering is all over the place on this horse. He closed Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager at 24-1 but is still more than double that with some Nevada-based bookmakers and is projected by most line makers (including the aforementioned Travis) to be higher than that on Derby day.

It's very curious to me!