Encino wins Lexington, needs 1 dropout for Kentucky Derby slot

Lexington, Ky.

Yes, Encino led at every call on a fast main track that has been kind to early speed this month. To say that was the whole story of his victory Saturday in the Grade 3, $400,000 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland would be a disservice to runner-up The Wine Steward.

In short, the 1 1/16-mile race that moved Encino to the top of the stand-by list for Kentucky Derby 2024 in three weeks ended up as close as the three-quarter-length margin would appear.

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“It looked like we were going to get there,” The Wine Steward’s jockey Luis Sáez said, “but, man, the winner was good.”

From start to finish. Especially the start. Carrying Florent Géroux from post 8, the Godolphin homebred colt by Nyquist showed a completely different style in his first dirt race than he showed last month in winning the John Battaglia Memorial on the Tapeta at Turfway Park. Instead of hanging back in the nine-horse pack, Encino (3-1) blasted out when the gates swung open.

“My horse really broke like a shot, and I think he just took everyone by surprise, including me,” said Géroux, who saw what Encino did when Axel Concepción rode him at Turfway. “When you break like this, sometimes you need to go to plan B.”

Trainer Brad Cox, who has won the last three runnings of the Lexington including the last two for Godolphin, concurred.

“He kind of broke running,” he said. “Florent took control of the race. When you can do that and do it in the fashion he was doing it in, you’ve got to be happy with that.”

Hades and Lucky Jeremy, both of whom finished fifth in major Derby preps last out, were expected to be in front early. But Hades (5-1) was back in the pack and wide before fading to come in a distant seventh. Lucky Jeremy (11-1) was within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead early, but he regressed in the stretch and came in eighth of the nine 3-year-olds.

On a sunny, 70-degree afternoon, Encino was left to set honest fractions of 23.55, 47.28, 1:11.94 and 1:37.22 around the two turns. How’s Ur Attitude (59-1) tried to chase him early before caving to finish last. It was left to post-time favorite The Wine Steward (7-5) to put up whatever challenge Encino was going to face.

Unraced since he finished a narrow second six months ago over the same course and distance in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), The Wine Steward looked primed for the challenge when he hooked up with Encino in the second turn. Hugging the rail, Encino resisted every punch that The Wine Steward threw from his outside in the last furlong.

“Glad to get him back and proud of his performance,” said The Wine Steward’s trainer Mike Maker, who has not elaborated on the reasons for the layoff. “I was hoping the pace had been a little stronger, but other than that, it is what it is.”

“The winner never gave up. He fights” Sáez said of Encino. As for The Wine Steward, Sáez said, “He ran his race. He came from (his time) off, too, so I think that cost him a little bit. He got a little tired at the end, but he tried big. He ran huge.”

The winning time was 1:43.93.

After Encino and The Wine Steward, it was another 8 3/4 lengths back to deep-closing Dilger (36-1) in third followed in order by Secret Chat (13-1), Footprint (15-1), Liberal Arts (6-1), Hades, Lucky Jeremy and How’s Ur Attitude.

Encino paid $8.62, $3.94 and $3.42; The Wine Steward $3.32 and $2.88; and Dilger $9.42.

The victory lifted Encino to 21st place in the Kentucky Derby qualifying standings, meaning he needs one dropout to get into the main field for the race.

“He’s not in,” Cox said with a chuckle. “We’ll have to see what happens over the next few weeks. The Preakness would obviously be the spot we could look at as well, but we’ll ship him to Churchill in a few days, start preparing him for either the Derby or the Preakness. I think one of those would be the logical spot looking forward.”

Hades, who would have earned a Derby berth had he won Saturday, got no points but still finds himself 25th in the standings, so five defections could get him in. The Wine Steward with 15 points appears to be too far down the list to get into the Derby.

Then again, there were 10 exits between the Lexington and Derby day last year, including futures favorite Forte. Two years ago the last of seven dropouts allowed Rich Strike to enter and come away with an 80-1 upset. In 2021 there were 15 defections after the Lexington.

As Maker put it, “Everything is on the table.”