Preakness prep fair odds: Edge goes to El Camino Real speed

The morning line for the El Camino Real Derby on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields correctly identifies the two top contenders in Endlessly and Tapalo. But the likely favoritism of the former makes the latter a play in this $100,000, 1 1/8-mile, win-and-you’re-in race for the Preakness Stakes.

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At first blush it might appear as if there is a lot of pace in this race. Not only Tapalo but also Come Out Fighting and Arctic Breeze employ front-end tactics. But a closer look at both the Brisnet and Timeform pace ratings clearly show Tapalo can have the front end all alone if that’s what jockey Evin Roman wants.

Of course, if either Come Out Fighting or Arctic Breeze or both want it, too, then they all likely lose. The beneficiary without question is Endlessly, a multiple Grade 3 winner routing on turf as a 2-year-old who finished beaten by just 3 1/2 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. I love the breeding on this Amerman Racing homebred, who, unlike Tapalo, is nominated to the Triple Crown. 

The dynamics of this race, both in terms of pace and price, make Tapalo the play here. Going forward I’d have some interest in Endlessly as a Kentucky Derby candidate with a breakthrough race here as the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, also on Tapeta but at Turfway Park, is a logical next step.