El Camino Real Derby 2021: Odds and analysis

The road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby makes its one and only stop at Golden Gate Fields in northern California when a field of nine — including one filly — lines up for the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby.

Contested at 1 1/8 miles over a synthetic surface, the El Camino Real provides Derby qualifying points on a 10-4-2-1 scale to the top four finishers. Southern California shipper Rombauer, who was scratched from the Jan. 30 Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita for this spot, is the 8-5 morning line favorite for trainer Michael McCarthy.

Here is a full field analysis for the El Camino Real, which is carded as the the eighth race with a scheduled post time of 7:15 p.m. ET. Odds are from the Golden Gate morning line. 

1) Positivity (12-1 - Paynter - Patrick Gallagher / Julien Couton) Like several in here, this will be his first time competing on a synthetic track. After winning the restricted Graduation at Del Mar last summer for Luis Mendez, he was transferred to Gallagher and most recently has been well beaten in both the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and restricted Cal Cup Derby on Jan. 16. Toss. 

2. Waspirant (8-1 - Union Rags - John Shirreffs / Assael Espinoza) Earned his diploma at Del Mar the first time going long on dirt and was subsequently a no-threat fourth in both the American Pharoah (G1) and the Sham (G3) following three-month layoff. Out of a Breeders' Cup Distaff winner, he's bred to be any kind and could move forward with recent race for a trainer who's well-known for his patience and steady development of horses. Use underneath.

3. Tesoro (20-1 - Anchor Down - O.J. Jauregui / Catalino Martinez) Debuted on Jan. 24 at Golden Gate going a mile against maidens and crossed the wire first by a half-length after attending a dawdling pace. However, he remains a maiden as he was disqualified to fifth for drifting out at the eighth pole. Martinez replaces Kyle Frey in the irons, who jumps ship for the favorite. He is at least proven over the surface and just drilled five furlongs in 1:00 flat at Golden Gate, which was the fastest of 30 at the distance. Still, form makes him tough to endorse. Toss.

4. It’s My House (20-1 - Anthony’s Cross - Jamey Thomas / William Antongeorgi) Made one start last year then returned after 11 weeks to graduate against maidens going six furlongs at Golden Gate on Jan. 31. It was a solid enough effort, as he pressed a lively pace and prevailed "stubbornly," according to the trip notes. He also has high-percentage connections in his corner, but the speed figures are light as compared to the contenders from Southern California. He's untested around two turns. Toss.

5. Petruchio (3-1 - Into Mischief - Richard Mandella / Irving Orozco) After breaking his maiden going a mile on the grass at Del Mar last fall, came back to be a clear-cut third behind Spielberg and The Great One in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He earned a race-high 96 Brisnet Speed Rating with the effort, and the fact he graduated on grass could signal an affinity for the synthetic. Win contender.

6. Play Chicken (12-1 - Square Eddie - Doug O’Neill / Evin Roman) Sprung a 13-1 upset when winning the one-mile King Glorious for California-breds on Dec. 20 at Los Alamitos. However, he came back to run a clunker when beaten 20 lengths last month's California Cup Derby at Santa Anita. Offspring of Square Eddie often run well on turf, so perhaps the synthetic moves this colt up. Still, he's never faced open company and anything more than a minor award would be a surprise. Use underneath. 

7. Javanica (5-2 - Medaglia d’Oro - Eoin Harty / Frank Alvarado) The Godolphin filly merits respect as the second choice on the morning line. She was runner-up in the Glorious Song on synthetic at Woodbine last fall and is exiting a pair of near misses on turf when beaten less than a length in the Jimmy Durante (G3) and Blue Norther. Dismiss at your own peril. Win contender. 

8. Governor’s Party (50-1 - Governor Charlie - Daniel Franko / Cristobal Herrera) He graduated vs. $40,000 maiden claimers via DQ and is exiting a local win in a starter allowance going a mile. He has-low percentage connections in his corner, the speed figures are light and he will be getting a huge class test. Toss. 

9. Rombauer (8-5 - Twirling Candy - Michael McCarthy / Kyle Frey) This is his first start since a solid fifth-place effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The word to scratch from the Lewis for this spot reportedly came from owners John and Diane Fadkin, and the decision did not seem to sit very well with McCarthy. Still, there's plenty to like with this colt. He was beaten just a half-length in the American Pharoah (G1) prior to the Breeders' Cup, making him easily the class of the field.

Additionally, it's a positive that he broke his maiden on turf at Del Mar. Add to the mix a bullet five-furlong drill in 59.40 last Saturday at Santa Anita and this colt will take some beating. The pick.

Summary

While 8-5 on the morning line doesn't offer much value, Rombauer is a deserving favorite against this unproven lineup. He has been competitive against the best in the division, is training well and that maiden win on turf proved his ability to handle multiple surfaces. 

We'll play an exacta keying Rombauer on top with Javanica and Petruchio in the second slot. Additionally, we'll play a trifecta with Rombauer on top, Javanica and Petruchio in second, and the remainder of the field in the third slot hoping to catch a big price. 

Play: $2 Exacta 9 with 5,7 ($4 total); $1 Trifecta 9 with 5,7 with All ($14 total)