Eclipse Awards: Female-turf division comes down to 4 horses
From Fierceness and Just F Y I in the juvenile divisions to likely-to-repeat sprint champions Elite Power and Goodnight Olive to the story of Cody’s Wish, most of the 12 Eclipse Awards that will go to horses appear to be locked up.
The female-turf division is quite the opposite. Not only will the winner be tough for voters to choose, so might narrowing the competition to the obligatory three finalists.
Strong cases may be made for the four standout horses shown here alphabetically.
Why she will win. Fev Rover had two Grade 1 wins, delivering at 3-5 odds in the Beverly D. at Colonial Downs and as the 4-1 third choice in the E. P. Taylor at Woodbine. Owned by Tracy Farmer and trained by Mark Casse, she came off an eight-month break July 1 to upset 2022 Canada champion Moira in the Nassau (G2) at Woodbine. The 5-year-old Gutaifan mare bred in Ireland is a contender to be Canada’s 2023 horse of the year.
Why she will not. Finishing 11th of 12 starters in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf completed a year when Fev Rover alternated wins and losses. Most glaring was her distant fourth as the odds-on favorite in the Canadian (G2), a loss that was bookended by her two Grade 1 triumphs. Only two weeks after her season debut, Fev Rover acted up in the gate at Saratoga and needed a veterinarian’s last-minute approval to race in the Diana (G1), where she finished a close third. Although that loss was viewed favorably by bettors who made her the favorite in the Beverly D., it remains a defeat that may cost her in the process of Eclipse elimination.
Why she will win. Two Grade 1 victories to start her 5-year-old season thrust In Italian to the top of the division. Owned by Peter Brant and trained by Chad Brown, the Dubawi mare was an odds-on favorite when she won the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland and the Just a Game at Belmont Park. If not for photo-finish losses trying for repeats in the Diana at Saratoga and the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, In Italian probably would have locked up the award that she lost as a finalist last year to co-owned stablemate Regal Glory.
Why she will not. Those two losses by a nose in New York to 7-1 Whitebeam and by a head in Kentucky to 11-1 Gina Romantica might not have looked as bad if they had not been punctuated with her fade to fifth as the 3-1 second choice in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Close as those losses in July and October were, they do not look as good as part of a season-ending, three-race losing streak.
Why she will win. Her regular jockey Frankie Dettori rode the England-based filly from ninth place to an indelibly thrilling victory in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, the first race in which Inspiral was asked to go more than a mile. That gave the 4-year-old daughter of Frankel a third top-level win this year to go along with Group 1 victories in the Jacques Le Marois in France and the Sun Chariot in England. No other filly or mare in the U.S. and Canada can match that. What’s more, Inspiral’s win in the Le Marois came against males.
Why she will not. Having only one start on this side of the Atlantic may be viewed by some voters as a fault. So then might an imperfect record. Bred and owned by the Thompson family’s Cheveley Park Stud and trained by John and Thady Gosden, Inspiral began her year with a neck loss at Royal Ascot in the Queen Anne (G1) and a distant, fifth-place finish in the Sussex (G1) on soft ground at Goodwood.
Why she will win. Her most noteworthy victory came against males in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), a race she has won two years in a row. The 6-year-old English Channel mare owned by George Krikorian and trained by Bill Mott started her year by winning the Bewitch (G3) at Keeneland for the third time in a row.
Why she will not. Other than those two wins, War Like Goddess was a disappointment. She was a beaten, odds-on favorite twice, finishing a wide-running sixth in the New York (G1) on the eve of the Belmont Stakes and a rank, albeit close second to McKulick in the Glens Falls (G2) at Saratoga. By the time she finished seventh against males at 9-1 odds in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, expectations for her had waned.
One voter’s conclusion
The roughly 250 Eclipse voters from the media and racing industry are asked to choose a winner and two other finalists in each category. Grade 1 wins are not the be-all and end-all, but the lack of them in this case is why War Like Goddess does not make the final three on my ballot.
Losses themselves also are important to consider when trying to break subjective ties. In Italian had what college-basketball analysts would call quality losses. She rises above Fev Rover because of her impressive near-misses in the Diana and First Lady.
All that might make her a champion any other year, but to coin another basketballism, In Italian will be a bridesmaid again but not a bride.
I admit it. I am one of those voters who downgrades international horses if all things are otherwise equal. That is not the case this year, though, because Inspiral had that extra something. That extra win with a G1 next to it. That extra win against the boys. That extra intangible in the way she won.
Sometimes there are style points. Inspiral certainly earned them with the way she picked off rivals at Santa Anita last month. Put all this together, and that is why she will get my vote for the female-turf Eclipse Award.
Gauging my fellow voters, though, is a whole nuther matter. Even if my own ethics did not already prevent it, I would not bet on it.