Eating chalk for Saturday's Bailout Special at Keeneland
During Keeneland’s Spring Meet, I introduced my “Bailout Special” which, simply, is a handicapping piece that highlights which horse I think will win each card’s finale.
Had a bad day at the track? Use the “Bailout Special” to get some of that money back.
Have a good day at the track and want to finish strong? There’s the “Bailout Special.”
Maybe you’re looking for a bold single to end a Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequence. Use the “Bailout Special.”
The horse I land on won’t always be the horse with the best perceived value. Neither will it be the horse I think “could win if the pace scenario sets up perfectly.”
My selection will be the horse that I think has the absolute best chance to win the race regardless of projected odds.
Were some of my winners (I went 7-for-16 in the Spring Meet) the prohibitive favorite? Yes.
Were some of the winners so-called easy selections? Yes.
But the goal is to pick the winner of the last race of the day at Keeneland every day they run. I’ll have some horses scratch, and if the weather is bad and the finale comes off the turf, there may not be a pick to play.
Race 10 $73,000 allowance 3-years old and up
5 ½ furlongs on dirt; post time 6:03 p.m. ET
As mentioned above, sometimes the Bailout Special will appear to be the easy choice, and Saturday’s finale at Keeneland may be one of those.
The morning line favorite Sayyaaf (post 5) looks pretty formidable on paper and will most likely be an odds-on favorite come post time.
It’s a five and a half furlong turf sprint allowance with a full field of 12 complete with three also-eligibles. Of the AEs, only Peter Miller’s Haydens Havoc (post 13) looks like a serviceable option, should Sayyaaf scratch.
The early pace should be quick, with Sayyaaf, Fooch (post 4) and Joyful Heart (post 6) leading the way.
A horse I’m interested in using underneath is Uncapped (post 10), who has a favorable post to go with his running style. He should be chugging to the wire late, but I think the favorite will hold him off.
My Bailout Special for the finale at Keeneland on Saturday is the presumed favorite Sayyaaf. Running for trainer Chad Brown, he broke his maiden two back so he’s already had his first shot at running against winners--a big jump for most young horses.
He’s coming off a 63 day layoff, but has put in plenty of sharp workouts so his fitness level should not come into question.
Sayyaaf will most likely get to the early lead ahead of Fooch and stay there throughout.
Play the favorite Saayyaf on top of exactas and trifectas over Fooch, Uncapped and Haydens Havoc if he draws in. Absent of any scratches, use Master Guns (post 1, 20-1 morning line) underneath.