Dust Commander fair odds: Hot pace equals value for closers

The stakes action is fast and furious Saturday with a $500,000 guaranteed pool all-stakes Pick 5 ending with the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds in the spotlight. But make sure to save some bankroll for another kind of furious, Surly Furious in the Dust Commander Stakes at Turfway Park.

Whether you want to add to an already-winning day or need it to get out, the Dust Commander at 8:55 p.m. EST should offer some opportunity, as I see Surly Furious’s 5-2 morning line as a fair price on one of only three stakes winners in the field of nine.

More importantly than his added-money success, though, is he has shown an ability to close into a fast pace, and a trio of horses in the outside half of the starting gate all show plenty of early zip. Surly Furious was close to a slow pace sprinting last out before kicking on, but his race two back when going 1 1/16 miles was a last-to-runner-up finish in a race without as much pace as this one.

All the other contenders on the morning line are far shorter than my fair-odds line. That makes Surly Furious a single for me as this is a type of race where people will go deep to cover the logicals, and that does not offer any value to those legs unless you completely separate elsewhere.

Common Bond, Santorini and Gunton Roe have fair odds all around their morning lines as well. The longest shot of those three could offer value, and I’m most interested in that being Common Bond, because his style is similar to our top selections, and the other two are part of that fast pace.

Coverage of the Turfway Park meet at Horse Racing Nation is made possible in part through a sponsorship by the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund.