Ky. Derby prep: Can Dubyuhnell break Remsen curse at Tampa?

It's the classic handicapper conundrum: What do you do when the most likely winner is a terrible bet?

That's the question I face with the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes considering I give No. 7 Dubyuhnell nearly twice the chance of winning than the second choice on my fair odds line, but it's impossible to see the 2022 Remsen (G2) Stakes winner offering any sort of value given his 9-5 morning line.

And let's just rip the Remsen bandage off right now, shall we? It's no secret this is not a race I ever view as key. Yes, it got a big boost last year when Mo Donegal went on to win the Wood Memorial and Belmont Stakes, but it's a tough sell next out regardless.

One-for-13 with the lone win coming at 3-10, and three odds-on losses, does not inspire confidence. Obviously every year is different, and if Dubyuhnell was going to be 7-2 in here, then he'd be a great bet off my 3-1 line. He's not, so he isn't.

So who can upset Dubyuhnell? Given my fair odds vs. morning line, No. 1 Worthington fascinates based on his dirt debut, and No. 10 Dreaming of Kona has some good figures.