Dubai World Cup fair odds: Magnitude is most obvious play

We all know Forever Young is the most likely winner of the Group 1 Dubai World Cup on Saturday at Meydan, but is he five times more likely to win than Magnitude?

That is what European bookmakers think, anyway, based on the antepost odds for the race at outfits such as William Hill and bet365. I see Forever Young as only twice as likely to win this race, with the Breeders' Cup and Saudi Cup (G1) winner at even money and Magnitude at 3-1 on my fair odds.

Maybe the recency bias of Forever Young laying an egg last year and getting beat by Hit Show off that huge Saudi Cup effort is clouding my judgment. Nysos, the Saudi Cup runner-up this year, is no Romantic Warrior, and it does not appear as though Forever Young's effort was as hard this year as last. That sets him up better for Dubai.

But Magnitude has been in this position before. He was a lot of people's sexy pick to upset Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty in the Travers Stakes (G1), and he did not come close. But while Forever Young was winning the Breeders' Cup and Saudi Cup, Magnitude did won the Clark (G2) and Razorback (G3) against older horses. His run style and talent are just too good not to take a shot, given the price here.

Hit Show is not completely impossible here to become just the second two-time winner of the Dubai World Cup. By now we know we're unlikely to get a lifetime best that shocks Forever Young and Magnitude if both run their races, but Hit Show can definitely capitalize if neither runs their best.