Dubai World Cup: Odds and analysis

Looking back at the past 10 years, the $12 million Dubai World Cup at Meydan Racecourse has been taken by a Godolphin-owned runner four times and an American shipper three times. This year, favored Mystic Guide fits both winning categories.

But the Americans who usually win this race, such as California Chrome, Arrogate and Animal Kingdom, bring star status with them through past notable victories. The question is whether Mystic Guide carries the same kind of class and ability as those three champions, or even the recent 2018 and 2019 Godolphin-owned winner Thunder Snow.

[Related: Dubai World Cup: What trainers think of the draw]

Here is a short analysis of each horse. Note that the number on the left represents the program number, while the one in parentheses is the post position.

1. (13). Ajuste Fiscal, 20-1 (Ioya Bigtime – Antonio Cintra Pereira/Vagner Leal – 12: 6-1-2 - $251,036): After a fifth-place finish in Al Maktoum Challenge Round 1 (G2) and a third in Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2), it is hard to recommend this horse. In fairness, he only lost the latter race by 1 3/4 lengths, but it gets expensive to choose them all and there is a better option from those races. Toss.

2. (7). Capezzano, 40-1 (Bernardini – Salem bin Ghadayer/Royston Ffrench – 20: 6-1-3 - $841,934): Capezzano shows even worse results this year than Ajuste Fiscal in the same races. He began the year with a seventh in Al Maktoum Challenge Round 1, before improving slightly to a fourth in Round 2. Capezzano is no stranger to the Dubai World Cup. In 2019, he gave way and ran last after traveling rank in the early stages. Last year, Capezzano was also last in the Saudi Cup. Even though this is not the strongest Dubai World Cup, he looks a step below. Toss.

3. (3). Chuwa Wizard, 15-1 (King Kamehameha – Ryuji Okubo/Keita Tosaki – 19: 10-3-4 - $4,838,789): Chuwa Wizard brought good form from Japan to the Saudi Cup after winning the Champions Cup (G1) over a familiar name in Gold Dream. He did attract a respectable amount of support in the Saudi Cup off the Champions Cup win, but could fare no better than ninth by 20 ¼ lengths with no real excuse. Although his Champions Cup win remains notable, it is hard to trust him as well off the Saudi flop. Toss.

4. (14). Gifts of Gold, 30-1 (Invincible Spirit – Saeed bin Suroor/Christophe Soumillon – 13: 4-3-1 - $1,568,255): This longshot’s form did lighten up recently in the Red Sea Turf Handicap on the Saudi Cup undercard. The problem is that Gifts of Gold took the Red Sea on turf over the marathon distance of 1 7/8 miles, and this is a dirt race at 1 1/4 miles. Prior to that race, Gifts of Gold ran last in Al Maktoum Challenge Round 1. In four tries at Meydan last year, the connections kept him on turf and he did not hit the board in three of those efforts. Even though Godolphin is hot in the Dubai World Cup, this runner is misplaced here. Toss.

5. (1). Great Scot, 15-1 (Requinto – A Mishrif/Frankie Dettori – 16: 7-1-3 - $2,280,036): Great Scot brings his greatest form to Meydan after three wins at Riyadh to start the year and a third-place finish in the Saudi Cup. He arguably took advantage of hot pace though after Knicks Go and Charlatan set the race up. Knicks Go faded in the stretch run and Great Scot caught him before the wire to complete the trifecta. Regardless, it is hard to knock Great Scot’s consistency this year and he offers enough of a punch to consider him for the bottom slots again, in case the pace heats up enough. Use underneath.

6. (2). Hypothetical, 10-1 (Lope de Vega – Salem bin Ghadayer/Mickael Barzalona – 9: 3-2-0 - $185,906): This local runner ran second in Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1). He lost by 1 3/4 lengths to Salute the Solider. But does that mean anything? Watching the replay, Hypothetical had perfect aim on Salute the Soldier and failed to pass him. The two of them did put some separation on the rest of the field, with three lengths between Hypothetical and Roman Rosso in third. Before that effort, Hypothetical won the New Jaguar XF, if that means anything, and also was second in the Firebreak Stakes on this course. It gets too expensive to use all the horses, even underneath, and the visual impression of him not passing Salute the Solider sticks in the memory. Toss.

7. (9). Jesus’ Team, 5-1 (Tapiture – Jose Francisco D’Angelo/Joel Rosario – 14: 3-5-3 - $1,098,540): Americans handicappers know this horse can finish underneath. Jesus’ Team has proven himself capable of earning checks at the highest level. In his most recent start, he made a solid closing bid for second in the Pegasus World Cup, only losing by 2 3/4 lengths to Knicks Go. Last year, Jesus’ Team ran third in the Preakness and second to Knicks Go in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. In this spot, he is better off thrown into the bottom slots again despite the lack of an American standout present. With Tacitus as an active example, some horses do not possess the will to capture races at the highest level, even if there is clear talent in there. Use underneath.

8 (12). Magny Cours, 10-1 (Medaglia d’Oro – Andre Fabre/William Buick – 8: 5-2-0 - $119,771): First of all, this runner sports an incredible pedigree for dirt. Medaglia d'Oro ran on dirt in his career, but he is capable of throwing runners on either surface. On the bottom side, Magny Cours' first dam is Indy Five Hundred, a full sister to Delta Princess. Most readers recognize Delta Princess immediately as the dam of Royal Delta, a multiple Grade 1 dirt winner who won $4.8 million in a remarkable career. Delta Princess also produced four other six-figure earners on the track. As for Magny Cours' actual form, he does show a sharp win over Persian King in the Prix de Montretout last year, as well as another win in the Coral Gala to close out his 2020 campaign. Persian King went on to capture the Prix d'Ispahan (G1) and Prix de Moulin de Longchamp (G1). Magny Cours won his return race earlier this month in the Prix Darshaan at Chantilly, but he beat a weak field and did not dominate the race with only a small 1 ¼-length margin. With that said, he may recapture last summer's form, or even move forward on dirt given the relation to Royal Delta. The pick.

9. (5). Military Law, 5-1 (Dubawi – M Al Mheiri/Antonio Fresu – 12: 5-3-0 - $1,030,626): Military Law faded to sixth in the Saudi Cup after a stalking position right outside the leaders. Perhaps the fast pace caused him to fade though, as he initially traveled in close range to Charlatan and Knicks Go. Prior to the effort, he won Al Maktoum Challenge Round 1 (G2) on this course with Salute the Solider in third, although that opponent likely did not give his best as most horses use Round 1 to race their way into shape. It gets expensive to pick all the horses, even when discussing options to use in the third and fourth positions only. This one narrowly misses the cut. Toss.

10. (6). Mystic Guide, 5/2 (Ghostzapper – Michael Stidham/Luis Saez – 7: 3-2-2 - $553,200): Well, here is the favorite. He deserves the role. After Stidham put blinkers on Mystic Guide, he won the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2), ran second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and then won his return race in the Razorback Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn in a fast time. To counter that point, Mystic Guide rode an outside bias to his Oaklawn win, as speed horses closer to the inside struggled to handle the slop.

With that said, Godolphin trusts this horse more than Maxfield as their American-based hope. It might not take a superstar to beat most of the international runners on dirt either, as long as they are true turf horses. But it does help to bring that kind of form here. Remember, the last three Americans to win the Dubai World Cup are Arrogate, California Chrome and Animal Kingdom on synthetic. Does Mystic Guide fit with those names? Granted this field is weaker than in the past. Maybe it does not take an American superstar to prevail here. Win contender.

11. (11). Salute the Soldier, 9/2 (Sepoy – Fawzi Abdulla Nass/Adrie de Vries – 21: 8-5-3 - $906,218): Forget about the fourth in the Dubai Creek Mile or third in Al Maktoum Challenge Round 1. This one is in top form now after wins in Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2) and Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1). Bettors know he enjoys the Meydan course as well. Typically, those Al Maktoum challenges do not feature the strongest fields though in comparison to American standards of Grade 1s and 2s. Regardless, his strongest effort likely puts him on the board for a third or fourth. Use underneath.

12. (10). Sleepy Eyes Todd, 10-1 (Paddy O’Prado – Miguel Angel Silva/Alexis Moreno – 17: 8-2-0 - $1,889,825): The absence of his former speed hurts. Back when Sleepy Eyes Todd offered early foot in routes, he held a good enough position to not require as big of a closing punch. Although he did fade in the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) due to showing speed, that is the risk in trying to win a race, as opposed to playing for a minor share.  His closing style works in sprints because those distances are more optimal for him and he can give a stronger late kick to offset the early deficit. To Sleepy Eyes Todd's credit, he was fifth in the Saudi Cup and fourth in the Pegasus World Cup. If he repeats either of those efforts, he might finish on the board once again and earn another check. Use underneath.

13. (8). Thegreatcollection, 30-1 (Saint Anddan – Doug Watson/Pat Cosgrave – 28: 7-7-2 - $564,583): A long time ago, this horse broke his maiden at Gulfstream in a claiming race. In recent times, he has run fourth in Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 and second in both Round 1 and 2. He also won the Dubai Creek Mile in December. It is not a great sign that his worst finish in those races came in the last round, while his best run was in December. Also, Salute the Solider and Hypothetical separated themselves well enough in Round 3. In all likelihood, this runner is overmatched. Toss.

14. (4). Title Ready, 20-1 (More Than Ready – Dallas Stewart/Ryan Moore – 25: 5-6-4 - $656,680): This descendant of Personal Ensign struggled in Grade 1 races last fall with a seventh in the Breeders' Cup Classic and 10th in the Clark Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs. He deserves another shot upon return. In most recent start though, he ran well enough to overcome a slow pace set by Blackberry Wine and capture the Louisiana Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds. No other horse made up enough ground to pass Blackberry Wine in that race, and the list of horses behind those two runners includes Wells Bayou, Sonneman, Silver Prospector and Captivating Moon. If Title Ready ships well and handles the Meydan surface, he is a contender as the race lacks a true American star. Even Grade 2 Americans can compete against international horses on dirt, although it will not be a blowout win. The closing style is a concern because of the large field and amount of dirt he projects to eat. Perhaps he needs a wide trip on purpose to keep clear of kickback. Win contender.

Conclusion:

Magny Cours looks like the most interesting horse, as he shows dirt breeding on both sides of his blood and starts on it for the first time. Yet, the return race looks mild.

Even with the questionable return, at 6-1 or higher, Magny Cours offers a fair Win/Place bet.

Another strategy is to box Mystic Guide, Magny Cours and Title Ready in an Exacta, especially if Magny Cours holds at 10-1 and Title Ready remains double digits as well. Of course, those two runners could become the victims of hype as the race gets closer.