Do Kentucky Derby runners have an edge in the Preakness?

When handicapping the Preakness Stakes, many bettors naturally gravitate toward horses exiting the Kentucky Derby. The conventional wisdom suggests these contenders hold an advantage, having already proven themselves in a challenging 1 1/4-mile contest against top competition. But does the data support this assumption? To answer this question, we examined Preakness results since 2001 to determine if Derby starters truly enjoy an edge in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown.

Our analysis reveals that 104 Kentucky Derby starters went on to compete in the Preakness during this period. Among these, 16 emerged victorious in Baltimore, a 15.4% win rate that significantly exceeds random probability. However, the advantage isn't distributed equally across all Derby finishers. Horses that performed well at Churchill Downs show a distinct advantage, with all 16 Preakness winners coming from horses that finished in the top seven in Louisville.

The data clearly demonstrates that Kentucky Derby form translates strongly to Preakness success. Derby winners in particular stand out, with 8 of 21 (38.1%) going on to capture the Preakness. This relatively high success rate has produced numerous Triple Crown hopefuls, including recent champions American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018).

Perhaps most surprising is the performance of horses that finished sixth in the Derby, winning the Preakness at a 33.3% clip (2 of 6 starters). Meanwhile, no horse that finished worse than seventh in the Derby has managed to win the Preakness during this period, suggesting there's a clear "cutoff line" where Derby form becomes too poor to overcome in Baltimore two weeks later. This pattern offers valuable guidance for handicappers considering long shots that disappointed in the Derby.

 Next, let's take a look at the performance of Kentucky Derby runners-up in the Preakness. With Sovereignty skipping the Preakness and Journalism playing such a key role in this year's race, let's see how previous second-place Derby finishers have fared.

Looking specifically at Kentucky Derby runners-up in the Preakness reveals an intriguing pattern. Despite their strong showing in Louisville, these horses have largely struggled to break through in Baltimore. Since 2001, only one of the 11 Derby second-place finishers who competed in the Preakness managed to win – Exaggerator in 2016. Given their consistent backing at the betting windows (seven went off at odds of 5-1 or less), Derby place horses appear to be chronically over-bet in the Preakness.

The disappointment of Derby also-rans is particularly notable in recent years. Epicenter (2022) and Bodemeister (2012) both settled for second place in the Preakness after securing the same position in the Derby, despite being favored in Baltimore. Others like Firing Line (2015) and Pioneerof the Nile (2009) struggled significantly, finishing seventh and 11th respectively. This suggests that the wear and tear of back-to-back Triple Crown races may affect some horses more than others, regardless of their promising Derby performance.

Ultimately, our data indicates that Derby form does indeed provide a meaningful edge in the Preakness - but with important caveats. Handicappers would be wise to focus on horses that finished in the top seven at Churchill Downs, while remaining skeptical of Derby also-rans unless they offer significant value. The two-week turnaround between races creates a complex handicapping puzzle, where class and form from the Derby must be balanced against the physical toll it exacts on these developing three-year-olds.

Which races are most predictive of Preakness success? 

When looking at Preakness results, we can break it out by where each Preakness starter raced previously. 

This data reveals an interesting paradox: while Kentucky Derby horses have the strongest absolute performance in the Preakness (best average finish), they actually provide the worst value relative to their betting odds. Perhaps that is related to our first table where horses that performed well in the Derby had success at Pimlico, but weaker Derby finishers did not. Alternately, Blue Grass and Lexington Stakes horses significantly outperform their odds, suggesting they're often overlooked by bettors despite solid performances.

For handicappers, this suggests a potential strategy of looking for value among Blue Grass and Lexington Stakes entrants, particularly if they have competitive speed figures, while being cautious about taking short prices on Kentucky Derby runners.

What about speed figures by previous race? 

We can also look at speed figures to see which preps are more productive in the Preakness. Beyers appear via the Daily Racing Form.

In this same way, looking at speed figures show that horses exiting the Kentucky Derby and Blue Grass were more likely to hold their form, where horses coming from the Lexington or Tesio were more often overmatched and declined measurably in the Preakness.