Dickey: Winners and losers from the Breeders' Cup post draw
A good post position doesn’t guarantee a victory by any means, but a bad Breeders’ Cup draw could severely hamper chances of even the best horse.
For the most part, connections left Monday night’s Breeders’ Cup post position festivities optimistic -- at least publicly. But a few also walked away stating displeasure with the draw.
It’s not quite the Kentucky Derby, with a field of 20 and mad dash to the first turn, but connections freely admit they’d rather be just about anywhere but the rail. Yet that’s where a number of top contenders wound up, while others may have found themselves wider than preferred.
So let’s name some winners and losers, at least based on the draw, starting with a few horses that may have seen their chances helped -- and then others hurt.
The Winners
Donna Veloce (Juvenile Fillies)
The morning line favorite Juvenile Fillies coming off her impressive debut victory drew the rail, but that won’t change her strategy. This lightly raced filly was going to gun for the early lead anyway.
Donna Veloce should be able to get in front of a more seasoned Two Sixty early and is the most-likely pacesetter of the weekend. Whether she has the class to beat Grade 1 company and wants all of two turns is the $2 million question.
Pure Sensation and jockey Paco Lopez really benefit from an inside, No. 2 post. This pairing was already likely to set the pace, but now there’s only one to clear on the inside before a potentially ground-saving trip on the inside.
The biggest threat to the outside looks like Shekky Shebaz from post 4. But an otherwise unencumbered run to the turn should put Pure Sensation in the driver’s seat to control the Turf Sprint’s pace.
While Catalina Cruiser is stuck on the inside and forced to go early, that should create quite an opportunity for Firenze Fire. If Irad Ortiz Jr. can pull off this strategy, he may be able to pick up the few lengths needed to give Firenze Fire a chance to win against contenders that look better on paper.
Between Catalina Cruiser and Firenze Fire, who’s in post 3, is Hog Creek Hustle, who wants no part of the early lead. Mike Smith and Hog Creek Hustle will most likely sit back and try to pick up the pieces of a potential pace meltdown of this expected brisk pace.
Here, Ortiz Jr. figures to position Firenze Fire behind Catalina Cruiser for a nice trip up the rail. He can tuck in the pocket position while other speedsters such as Mitole and Shancelot gun it with Catalina Cruiser. Whether it puts Firenze Fire in a position to upset, or at least hit the board, the consistent type could save enough ground to move himself up.
The Losers
“I don’t think anyone really likes the 1 post position,” trainer John Shirreffs said after this mare drew the rail. “We’ll see how it goes.”
While the No. 1 slot is not statistically a hindrance in this event, the horses to her immediate right sport the same mid-pack running style with no significant gate speed. That front-running preference will come from the outside with Serengeti Empress and Mo See Cal in the 9 and 10 posts, respectively.
Paradise Woods, who has been an inconsistent gate horse, will need to break as clean as ever to avoid getting shuffled back. Here, the post could dictate tactics, and that’s not ideal.
Snapper Sinclair has the ability to be forwardly placed in races. But a closer look at his past performances show that when he draws an outside post, he isn’t quite fast enough to get to the lead.
He’s unfortunately in such a position from post 10 on Saturday, when he’ll have to expend energy early given the first of two turns in the Dirt Mile comes up closely after they leave the starting gate.
“I’d imagine he’ll be up on the pace from that outside post,” said owner Jeff Bloom. “He will have to use his natural speed to get position.”
A combination of needing to go, with a history of not going fast enough from the outside post, could pull Snapper Sinclair from serious consideration.
Om and Belvoir Bay (Turf Sprint)
“I’m not so happy with Om and Belvoir Bay stuck on the outside,” said trainer Peter Miller after that pair drew posts 11 and 12 in the five-furlong jaunt. “Belvoir Bay has a ton of speed and should be able to clear and get a position. The plan was always to put her up in the race. She’s very fast and we wanted to be up close, but she may lose some ground now. I don’t think it really changes things too much. You lose ground, but you’re also not going to have a lot of traffic.”
Miller is correct inasmuch as Belvoir Bay has some early speed, but he may be guilty of wishful thinking if he believes she can overcome both a 147-day layoff as well as the far outside post to get the early lead in this event.
While she can definitely get better early positioning by being aggressive, there are too many other horses in the race with a similar mid-pack running style for her to have a chance to clear all of them from that post.
Outside posts in five-furlong sprints on the turf have not fared well at Santa Anita this meet. Posts 8 through 12 are a combined 2-for-20, while posts 1 through 3 are 22-for-177 (18%).
As for Om, he won his last race at 5 ½ furlongs from the 12 post, but that was in June. The last time he hit the board from an outside post was in February of 2018 when he won from post 6 in a six-horse race. He’s also coming off the bench, with the layoff measuring 126 days.