Dickey: Betting Friday night's Turfway Park Pick 5 on a budget
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Every Friday during Turfway Park's winter and spring meets, I’ll be offering up a Pick 5 ticket for readers to contemplate, analyze and hopefully integrate into their own wagers. The Northern Kentucky track, now under Churchill Downs Inc. ownership, is offering larger purses, and more quality horses should follow in the coming months.
I’ll try to keep the investment under $100 and will most weeks strive to use at least one single. The first leg is off at 6:15 p.m. ET, and you can see Turfway Park entries and results here.
Race 1
I'd like to single to start here, but I'll go ahead and include two on the ticket. While I'm pretty confident in No. 5 Ed's Rocket here -- he has the requisite speed and is dropping in class -- he's coming off a bit of a layoff. I'll have to use No. 7 Betweenhereandcool as well.
The latter also comes in off a decent layoff, and the 9-year old sports speed figures good enough to compete with Ed's Rocket at a much better price. If the old man scratches, feel free to single Ed's Rocket. Those are the only two I'm interested in playing in the first leg.
Race 2
Albeit there's only a small sample size as a guide, but far outside posts have not fared well in sprint races at Turfway Park so far this meet. And that's discouraging because the two horses I like the best in this field drew wide.
Jockey Declan Cannon will once again be aboard No. 8 Da Mrs. Although although the pair finished fourth together back in August at Ellis Park, Cannon coaxed a pretty good effort out of the 4-year old daughter of Daaher, who runs out of the Zachary Short barn currently. Short has done well recently on synthetics; if this one had a better post, she'd probably be worth using as a single.
There's a good possibility No. 9 Blazing Diamond will be overbet in this race. Her speed figures and class drop would warrant favoritism, and like Da Mrs., if she drew farther inside she'd probably deserve being odds-on. I'll use both of these outside entries, but will be rooting for a mare with much better early position.
Rodney Prescott will again be aboard No. 4 Paige's Star, who has hit the board in five straight starts and eight out of her last 10 tries. While she is also coming off a bit of a layoff, her inside positioning and her sticktoitiveness make her intriguing and at what should be a much better price. Using three in this leg, but Paige's Star is the one I want to see hit the wire first.
Race 3
In the third and fourth, the horses I like best are also-eligibles for their respective races, so there's a chance I could miss out on using them.
As for others, in Race 3, Blueberry Shine drew the rail, which through 40 races at the current Turfway meet has produced one winner. If that trend ends here, it will be because this one should sit back off a quick early pace. Jockey Albin Jiminez is off to a hot start in this meet, and having him aboard makes this one a play.
Kimberley Dream should be one of the fillies and mares gunning for the front. From the No. 4 hole, she looks like a pace setter along with the horse immediately to her left. If that lead goes uncontested, she should have enough to draw off late. She's a must-use, especially with an appreciable drop in class.
No. 13, Sure She's Grand, is the one I'd like to see draw in. She finished third behind Kimberley Dream in November in a much tougher field at Churchill Downs. The far outside post in one mile races has as many winners in seven tries as the rail post does in 40 races regardless of distance. If she's in, she's on the ticket. She's 12-1 on the morning line and would go overlooked at the windows.
Race 4
Here's another race where I'd like to be able to use the No. 13 horse, this time with a filly that essentially put in a public workout here at Turfway Park on December 4 where she finished up the track in her first race since June.
With a precipitous class drop in this spot, she should fit right in with these. I think she's sneaky here after the poor showing.
No. 6 Tyche will most likely go off as shortest favorite in the sequence, and her past performances dictate deserving favoritism. But she's yet to run at Turfway Park or on synthetic, so I need at least one saver in this leg if she doesn't take to the surface.
Skip and a Hop, coming out of the No. 9 hole, is also trying Turfway and synthetic footing for the first time, but it's her drop in class her that has me think she'll compete well, although she'll be doing it from off the pace.
Race 5
The payoff leg proved most difficult to handicap with this a maiden special weight event for 2-year-old fillies that includes four first-time starters.
My top choice is No. 2, Snaffle, for trainer Ken McPeek, who saw this one hit the board once in two tries at Keeneland after a seventh-place finish in her debut at Saratoga. Let's face it: She's simply raced against tougher than she'll encounter at Turfway.
No. 5 My Mane Girl is exiting a maiden special weight race at Churchill Downs last month and is also trained by McPeek. She showed plenty of speed in her debut and will most likely replicate that here. She will, however, also be heavily bet.
No. 8 Bat Bat tried to keep up with the early pace in her debut, a $150,000 maiden claiming race at Churchill Downs in November, and just could not hold on. She finished way up the track. She may be forgotten at the windows, but I like betting second time starters that showed some early speed.
Blackberry Lisa was hurt by a No. 11 draw, which explains her 8-1 morning line price. If a McPeek horse doesn't prevail in this race, I expect to see this one in the winner's circle.
The ticket
50-cent pick 5: 5,7 with 4,8,9 with 1,4 (13*) with 6,9 (13*) with 2,5,8,11
Cost: $48 up to $108
* = If the No. 13 draws in
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