Dickey: 5 Breeders' Cup wagering stands I'm ready to take

Attempting to handicap Breeders’ Cup races before the post position draw doesn’t have to be a fruitless effort. Ahead of Monday’s draw, which will include final jockey assignments, none of these five stands for or against in the championships have to be considered definitive. But my opinions are certainly trending in specific directions when it comes to Friday and Saturday’s races at Santa Anita Park.

Pending what happens at the draw -- say, a good horse in a bad post -- along with last-minute defections, there’s a good chance these stands won’t change. Of course, it’s often that the easy part is forming an opinion; the harder part is realizing you may need to change that thinking or face the prospect of being wrong.

Juvenile Turf (Friday, Race 6): Single Arizona

I can’t envision a post position draw that would temper my expectations of his chance to win this race. A quick look at the winning post position stats for turf routes at Santa Anita this meet (through last Thursday) shows a normal distribution of winners, minus posts 1 and 3. Post positions 10,11 and 12 haven’t produced a winner, but that’s from very limited starters. This field could go as large as 14, but that doesn’t concern me.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won this race four times previously: in 2011 with Wrote, 2012 with George Vancouver, 2015 with Hit It a Bomb and in 2017 with Mendelssohn. O’Brien comes to this year’s race with four possible runners. Arizona, Fort Myers and Royal Dornoch should all make the main field, while New World Tapestry may be on the outside looking in.

Arizona has been running exclusively in Group 1 company in his three races since August 18. While he did not win any of those events, he was bested twice by Pinatubo, rated as Europe’s top 2-year-old and bypassing the Breeders’ Cup.

A No Nay Never colt out of English Channel mare Lady Ederle, Arizona has raced six times in his career with a 2-2-1 record. He has already earned $331,669 for his Coolmore connections.

Coming into the Breeders’ Cup off his best effort as far as speed figures concerned, Arizona has some history working for him. Five of the last six times this race has been run at Santa Anita, a European shipper won the race. Only three times in the last 10 years has this race been won by a U.S.-based trainer.

I believe the main competition for Arizona to be stablemate Royal Dornoch, Christophe Clement’s Decorated Invader and Mark Casse’s Peace Achieved. It will be interesting to see which jockey will get the mount, with Ryan Moore taking O’Brien’s first cal. I fully expect Arizona to win this race, and I’ll most likely be using him as a single. 

Juvenile Fillies (Friday, Race 7): Play against Donna Veloce

Donna Veloce won impressively September 28 when debuting in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita. She won by more than nine lengths as the odds-on favorite for trainer Simon Callaghan. That’s it. That’s her career to date.

She will likely be a very good filly, and maybe a great one who goes on to accomplish plenty. But asking her to exit a 6 ½-furlong maiden race by stretching out to a two-turn Grade 1 against accomplished winners for the first time seems a bit much.

Donna Veloce will be facing Grade 1 winners in Bast, British Idiom, Perfect Alibi and Wicked Whisper to name a few.

While Donna Veloce looks the part of a budding superstar, and her morning training continues to be solid, I’ll play more experienced rivals in the win spot and go against Donna Veloce improving to 2-for-2.

Dirt Mile (Saturday, Race 6): Improbable over Omaha Beach

I expect this stand to receive the most complaints. Yes, I was impressed by Omaha Beach’s return win in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1) over favored Shancelot. It was a solid effort following throat surgery and six months away from the track.

Omaha Beach also beat Improbable to win the Arkansas Derby (G1) last April. I acknowledge that. I also acknowledge that Improbable finished a disappointing fourth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) behind the likes of Math Wizard, Mr. Money and War of Will in his most recent start.

In nine career races, Improbable has gone to the gate as the favorite eight times, including this year’s Kentucky Derby. The only time he wasn’t favored was in that Arkansas Derby. But now he gets to face Omaha Beach at home in California.

In his three races at Santa Anita, Los Alamitos and Del Mar, Improbable is a perfect 3-for-3. He’s also 2-for-2 at the mile distance in his career.

As noted earlier, Omaha Beach looked great running at six furlongs upon his return. He’s not a sprinter. While he realized a career top in his last race, it’s clearly evident this is a two-turn horse. It seems to me this is an awkward distance for Omaha Beach. And when looking at the track configuration for the two-turn dirt mile at Santa Anita, the first turn is not far from the starting gate. This race will be draw-dependent.

The Breeders’ Cup will again feature head to head betting in certain races, and I hope they choose Omaha Beach against Improbable for the Dirt Mile. I’ll take my chances with Baffert’s horse on the west coast at his preferred distance over Omaha Beach, who has gone sprint, route, route, sprint in his last four starts over the last nine months. They key for Improbable is the gate. If he gets away well, I like his chances.

Filly & Mare Turf (Saturday, Race 7): Single Sistercharlie

With Monday’s news that Magical will not participate in the Breeders’ Cup and is to be retired, the Filly & Mare Turf became a single for me. Sistercharlie is, of course, coming into the race on a six-race winning streak, all at the Grade 1 level.

Had Magical indeed run against Sistercharlie in the Filly & Mare Turf, I had considered it a race between those two and the rest of the field. While I still think Vasilika is intriguing if she runs in this race, I had her pegged as the one to win should the top two burn each other out. But absent Magical, I’m convinced it is Sistercharlie’s race to lose.

We will not get a square price on Sistercharlie, and win bets are out of the question, as she will most likely be the shortest favorite over the two days of Breeders’ Cup races.

Everything sets up for her to win as she has her own rabbit in Thais in this race to set the proper pace. There has not been a lot of success in this race by 3-year olds, with the majority of the winners being 4 and 5 years old. Sistercharlie was foaled in March of 2014 and has been running at the highest level of her career as far as the sheets are concerned.

While she offers little value in the win pool, there is nothing wrong with keying her atop exactas and trifectas, trying to catch a nice price underneath. But the way I’m going to take advantage of her chances to win this race is by using her as a single. I certainly won’t be alone in that.

The Filly & Mare Turf is the final leg of the all-Breeders’ Cup race Pick-4 that starts with the Filly & Mare Sprint. The second leg of that Pick 4 is the Turf Sprint, which looks like a difficult race to pare down to a few top contenders. Horizontal players may have to go deep in the Turf Sprint to stay alive in the sequence, so to have Sistercharlie as a single works to keep costs down.

Sprint (Saturday, Race 8): Imperial Hint, Mitole stand out

One advantage horseplayers love to hold over their competitors is to be short in a leg of a multi-race bet where others are long. It seems the public feels the Sprint, while top-heavy, also possesses the type of depth where some are forced to spread.

But I think there are two most probable winners: Imperial Hint and Mitole. I’m going to tackle multi-race bets involving the Sprint by only using these two runners.

Sheets players can attest that the two I like here appear to have the edge over the others. I use myriad speed figures and sheets that I have incorporated into my handicapping. While some of the widely available past performances could cloud the Sprint, I’m confident that the winner will be either Imperial Hint or Mitole, and I prefer the former over the latter.

Mitole has only had one hiccup in his last nine races (9: 8-0-1) with every race except for one exceeding a 103 Beyer speed figure. The only blemish was his third-place finish in the Vanderbilt (G1) at Saratoga, where he was beaten by Imperial Hint and Diamond Oops.

Mitole returned to his winning ways next out, capturing the Forego (G1) a month later. His victory earned him a 105 Beyer, nine points higher than his Vanderbilt. While there are a few runners that have been able to run to that level in previous races, Mitole consistently runs that well, and he’s working nicely for this race.

Imperial Hint is one of the runners that can run at that level with consistency when he is right. The 6-year old by Imperialism finished third in the Golden Shaheen (G1) in Meydan at the end of March and took some time to recover. He returned to the track in the Vanderbilt and fired a 114 Beyer in his return. He followed that up with another victory, this time in the Vosburgh (G1) at Belmont at the end of September. 

Imperial Hint comes in fresh and, as shown in his Vanderbilt, can run at a high level even when given a break. The contender that I think has an outside chance to beat Mitole and Imperial hint in the Sprint is one of my all-time favorites in Whitmore. Catalina Cruiser and Firenze Fire may factor, but I am playing against Shancelot completely, disregarding him in vertical bets.

The draw could be the great equalizer in this race as much as any this weekend. But barring either one of them drawing the rail, Imperial Hint and Mitole will be the two I use. The Sprint begins the late Pick 5, and I prefer going short in the first leg of the wagers knowing that if I’m wrong, I can play the rest of the sequence as a Pick 4.