Saratoga 2023: Diana Stakes odds and analysis

Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Trainer Chad Brown will try and win the Grade 1, $500,000 Diana for the eighth time on Saturday at Saratoga. The field of five female turf runners for the 1 1/8 mile turf race includes four from Brown’s barn.

Brown has won 6 out of the last 7 editions of the Diana with all seven of his victories coming since 2011. Past winners include Lady Eli, Sistercharlie twice, Rushing Fall, and last year with In Italian. In Italian will be a heavy favorite to win the Diana again which would give owner Peter Brant his fourth.

The trainer’s domination of the Diana has not been limited to just winning the race, in 2022 it was a Brown superfecta after he swept the top four places.

“We point to this race every year,” Brown said. “Luckily, we’ve had a lot of great fillies over the years that have had great success in the race. This year, I think we have a really nice group of fillies as well.”

The field of five won a combined 25 races in their careers and all of the fillies and mares are graded stakes winners.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Diana with the official track morning line by David Aragona. The race is scheduled for 2:46 p.m. EDT and is carded as race 4 out of 11.

1. Fev Rover, 12-1. Gutaifan – Mark Casse / Javier Castellano – 15: 4-4-2 - $578,776. Fev Rover moved from racing in Great Britain, where she ran third in a Group 1, to the Woodbine barn of Mark Casse. Last year, she won the Canadian (G2) and was fourth in the E.P. Taylor (G1). The 5-year-old mare won her first start of 2023 by more than four lengths with a last to first trip. Use in exotics.

2. In Italian, 2-5. Dubawi – Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 11: 7-3-1 - $1,910,308. In Italian won the Diana last year and since then added three more Grade 1 victories and was second by just a length in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. In Italian goes to the lead and more times than not cannot be caught. In 11 career starts she finished in the top three every time with seven wins and $1.9 million in earnings. The 5-year-old is in the best form of her career. Top Choice.

3. Marketsegmentation, 4-1. American Pharoah – Chad Brown / Jose Ortiz – 7: 5-1-1 - $638,730. Marketsegmentation won her last three starts all in stakes races beginning at Gulfstream Park and then moved to the Beaugay (G3) and the New York (G1) at Belmont Park. She has an excellent record in her seven starts with 5 wins, a second, and a third. The daughter of American Pharoah has won on the lead and from a stalking position. Win contender.

4. Fluffy Socks, 8-1. Slumber – Chad Brown / Joel Rosario – 18: 5-7-2 - $994,580. Fluffy Socks made her 2023 debut at Churchill Downs and won the Distaff Turf Mile (G2). Like the other runners from the Brown barn she has an excellent record for her career, hitting the board in 14 of 18 starts. Up to this point Fluffy Socks had wins in Grade 2 and 3 stakes but has been unable to get a win in a Grade 1. She runs best from off the pace. Toss.

5. Whitebeam, 5-1. Caravaggio – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 8: 4-2-1 - $121,308. Whitebeam moved from Europe to Chad Brown and was third in her American debut in April in the Plenty of Grade at Aqueduct and then won the Gallorette (G3) at Pimlico on Preakness weekend from a stalking position She faces a big class challenge in this Grade 1 race. Toss.

Summary: In Italian was assigned 2-5 odds in the morning and certainly deserves plenty of respect after dominating recent Grade 1 stakes with a one-length loss in the Breeders’ Cup mixed in there. In Italian goes right to the lead and has been very hard to catch. She has five races in a row with triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form while Fluffy Socks is the only other horse in the field that has reached that level. In 10 of 11 starts In Italian ran on firm turf with only one race on a good grass course. There is a chance of plenty of rain which could put her on a wet turf course for the first time.

In Italian is the top choice and will be very hard to beat with Marketsegmentation and Fev Rover most likely to complete the exacta.