Diana Stakes 2022: Odds and analysis

The $500,000 Diana Stakes, which is the first Grade 1 of the 2022 Saratoga meeting, will be run on Saturday at 1 1/8 miles on the turf. The race for fillies and mares who are 4 years old and up drew a field of six, including four for trainer Chad Brown.

Brown, who won the Eclipse Award as outstanding trainer four times, will try to get his seventh victory in the Diana. Brown won the race for five consecutive years until British trainer Charlie Appleby broke that streak last year with Althiqua.

This year the Diana has a distinct international flavor – all but one of the horses in the field were bred in Europe by influential sires from overseas.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Diana with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Grade 1 is carded as race 8 of 11 with post-time set for 5:03 p.m. ET.

1. Technical Analysis (IRE) (7-2 – Kingman – Chad Brown / Jose Ortiz – 9: 5-2-1 - $508,200) Look at Technical Analysis’s last five races and there are only top-two finishes, including the Galorette (G3) at Pimlico in her second start of this year. In those five starts, the Klaravich Stables runner pressed the pace or was on the lead. This will be her second try to win a Grade 1, having run second in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland in the fall in a race restricted to 3-year-old fillies. She is likely to be in the mix at the wire. Use underneath.

2. Creative Flair (IRE) (3-1 – Dubawi – Charlie Appleby / Jamie Spencer – 9: 4-1-2 - $304,931) Trainer Charlie Appleby won this race last year when he had so many important victories across America. Creative Flair ran in New York twice in 2021, finishing third in the Saratoga Oaks (G3) and fourth in the Jockey Club Oaks. She has one race this year, in February at Meydan in Dubai when she won the Balanchine (G2) after taking the lead early. Win contender.

3. Bleecker Street (9-5 – Quality Road – Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 7: 7-0-0 - $834,700) Bleecker Street is unbeaten in seven career starts in the last two years with a resume that began with a maiden victory at Monmouth Park and shows a Grade 1 win in the New York at Belmont Park last month. The 4-year-old raced twice in 2021 and five times this year, with four graded-stakes victories. Five starts in five months is a lot of racing for a Chad Brown runner, but this filly has thrived on the racing as she has gotten better with every race. Bleecker Street has won at five tracks at distances from a mile to 1 1/4 miles. It is almost like Bleecker Street’s ascent was a surprise to Brown and to bettors alike since she was the favorite only four times – and not in that June 10 Grade 1. Each time she won with a closing move. It is fun to root for an undefeated horse such as Bleecker Street, but win streaks rarely last forever. The one to beat.

4. Rougir (FR) (7-2 – Territories – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 16: 5-1-3 - $665,143) Rougir made her first 13 starts in Europe with a Group 1 and a Group 3 win among four victories in France. She moved to Brown's barn after the 2021 Breeders’ Cup, where she was seventh in the Filly and Mare Turf. Rougir debuted for Brown when she won the Beaugay (G3) at Belmont. She came up empty down the stretch in the New York as the odds-on favorite. Brown is bringing her right back from that fifth-place finish, so he must expect a better showing. Win contender.

5. Dalika (GER) (12-1 – Pastorius – Al Stall Jr. / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 26: 7-7-0 - $624,856) This 6-year-old was bred in Germany but raced in the U.S. for all but the first three starts of her career. She made her 2022 debut at Churchill Downs last month after taking the winter off. She set the pace in the Mint Julep (G3) and finished second in a field of 10. Last year, she won a Grade 3 at Delaware Park. Her record also includes a second in the Riskaverse in 2019. The Diana will be her third start in a Grade 1. Toss.

6. In Italian (GB), (6-1 – Dubawi – Chad Brown / Joel Rosario – 6: 3-2-1 - $316,220) In Italian raced only in America for Chad Brown with a front-end victory in the Honey Fox (G3) in March at Gulfstream Park as the favorite. Heading north, she was second in the Distaff Turf Mile (G2) at Churchill Downs and most recently was third in the Just A Game (G1) at Belmont behind her stablemate Regal Glory. In the Diana, she is likely to be part of a contentious pace. In six starts, she has only top three finishes. Trifecta finish possible.

Summary: The Diana drew an interesting field of graded- or group-stakes winning fillies or mares, and that makes it is hard to confidently eliminate any of them as win contenders.

A strong early pace is expected in the Diana, with Dalika, In Italian and Technical Analysis showing a preference to be part of the early fractions in their races. That will set the table for the closers – Bleecker Street, Ocean Road, and Rougir.

I would be happy to see Bleecker Street continue her winning ways because that is good for racing, but she will be a heavy favorite. Rougir will the top choice because she will come with more favorable odds than her undefeated stablemate.