Derby or Preakness to Belmont: Which path is better?
Does skipping the Preakness give Derby runners an advantage in the Belmont? An analysis of Belmont Stakes history from 2001 to 2024 reveals which path gives horses the best chance at capturing the third jewel of the Triple Crown.
Which path to the Belmont is best?
| Path to Belmont | Horses | Win % | Top 3 % | Avg Beyer | Beyer Change | Avg Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby to Belmont | 82 | 13.4% | 37.8% | 87.9 | 0.0 | 5.0 |
| Derby & Preakness | 33 | 12.1% | 42.4% | 91.3 | -9.4 | 4.8 |
| Peter Pan Stakes | 31 | 9.7% | 22.6% | 80.5 | -13.2 | 6.0 |
| Long layoff (40+ days) | 18 | 5.6% | 27.8% | 75.5 | -2.7 | 6.6 |
| Preakness only | 26 | 0.0% | 11.5% | 81.2 | -13.2 | 6.2 |
Derby to Belmont: The fresh horse advantage
The most successful path to Belmont Stakes victory has been skipping the Preakness and going directly from the Kentucky Derby to Belmont. This strategy has produced 11 winners since 2001, including recent champions Dornoch, Mo Donegal and Essential Quality. The 13.4% win rate for this path significantly outperforms other approaches.
What makes this strategy so effective is the freshness factor. Horses following this path maintain their Beyer Speed Figures from the Derby to Belmont, showing no regression in performance. Meanwhile, horses that run both the Derby and Preakness typically lose nearly 10 Beyer points by the time they reach Belmont. Empire Maker set the template for this approach in 2003, and subsequent winners like Birdstone, Jazil and Summer Bird proved this wasn't just a fluke.
The Derby-to-Belmont horses also benefit from having five weeks to recover from the physically demanding Derby experience rather than having to manage a quick turnaround for the Preakness.
The Triple Crown challenge
Horses attempting the full Triple Crown series face the ultimate test of stamina and durability. Although only American Pharoah and Justify completed the Derby-Preakness-Belmont sweep, Point Given and Afleet Alex ran in all three races and won the Preakness and Belmont.
The statistics show these horses actually run higher Beyer Speed Figures in the Belmont (91.3 average) than any other group, but they typically regress from their Preakness performance. However, these horses are often among the betting favorites, averaging a 3.2 odds rank, reflecting their proven quality against top competition.
The Peter Pan prep
The Peter Pan Stakes has served as a launching pad for three Belmont winners: Tonalist, Sir Winston and Arcangelo. This Grade 2 race allows horses to prep while facing less demanding competition than the Derby or Preakness.
However, the data shows Peter Pan horses typically struggle with significant Beyer regression, dropping an average of 13.2 points from their previous race. The 9.7% win rate indicates this path can work but requires exceptional horses to overcome the competitive gap.
Long layoffs and fresh starts
Horses taking extended breaks of 40 or more days before the Belmont represent the least common successful approach. Only Tiz the Law has won from this position during the study period, capturing the 2020 Belmont when it was run as the first Triple Crown race because of the pandemic.
These horses often show the lowest Beyer figures 75.5 average and struggle with race fitness despite being fresh. The 5.6% win rate suggests that while rest can be beneficial, horses need recent competitive experience to handle the pressure and pace of the Belmont Stakes.
The Preakness-only puzzle
Perhaps the most surprising finding is that horses running in only the Preakness before the Belmont have failed to win during this 23-year period. These 26 horses managed just an 11.5% top-three rate, the worst among all paths studied.
The significant Beyer regression of 13.2 points suggests these horses often peaked for the Preakness and struggle to recapture that form.
The winning formula
The data clearly shows that freshness trumps recent racing when it comes to Belmont Stakes success. Will that lead to Sovereignty or Baeza defeating Journalism? We will find out on Saturday.