Ky. Derby fair odds: Stock rises on re-emerging juveniles

When we last discussed Kentucky Derby fair odds, Citizen Bull and East Avenue both had just returned to the worktab and Chancer McPatrick was still on the shelf. Now a month later, Citizen Bull won his 3-year-old debut, East Avenue is targeting the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and Chancer McPatrick is back to work.

That type of forward progress is enough to make them my top three choices to win the Kentucky Derby 2025.

For the purpose of this exercise, I took the top 13 horses (10- to 33-1) from Caesars Sportsbook and then 11 of the next 19 horses (35- to 50-1) listed in the market available only in Nevada. The shortest price at Caesars I did not include here is Calling Card at 35-1. His last two just were not good enough to consider him a top 24 prospect.

This is a 100-point line based on only the 24 horses listed, so actual fair odds for the Derby would be higher. But seeing how they rank is a good exercise in identifying potential value. For example, I'd rather bet Citizen Bull, 14-1 at Caesars, than Barnes, 10-1. I'd rather bet Chancer McPatrick at 45-1 than San Saba at 30-1.

Citizen Bull was on top last month and remains there off his win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3), with stablemate Rodriguez joining the fray after a curious voyage chasing last year's champion Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner.

Captain Cook won the Withers Stakes, Burnham Square won the Holly Bull (G3) and both join this list. The latter is my preference with 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May in mind. I like what he showed taking command in the short stretch at Gulfstream Park and expect him to improve while having concerns that this is Captain Cook's peak.

I was most disappointed in Patch Adams's return to the races. That Southwest (G3) wasn't great, but trainer Brad Cox had several maiden winners fail to take the next step recently. I'm willing to give a mulligan, but with the 50-points-to-the-winner races starting Feb. 15 with the Risen Star, the time for setbacks is over. Only horses moving forward need apply for contender consideration.