Ky. Derby fair odds: Marginal movement for Tampa performers
None of my top four most likely winners of Kentucky Derby 2025 were in action last week, but there might have been a change to the order if my fifth-ranked horse, Chancer McPatrick, had run better in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby.
He did not run poorly, mind you, but I definitely did not see enough to move him into a superfecta position after his 3-year-old debut. I did, however, see enough from his Chad Brown-trained stablemate Hill Road to move that one into my top 20. He has every right to be better than that position in the coming weeks. But given the quick turnaround off limited works, I want to see another one before getting too crazy.
Tampa Bay Derby winner Owen Almighty moved up as well, but there is still uncertainty regarding his ultimate target, as trainer Brian Lynch still lists the Pat Day Mile (G2) at a one-turf mile as the more likely goal for the colt by champion sprinter Speightstown.
Also, if Owen Almighty enters the Derby, will he have done so off an eight-week break from the Tampa Bay Derby without a race beyond 1 1/16 miles? If so, he is a toss. But I like him as a prospect and would love to see him in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.
The biggest dropper this week is Patch Adams. Even with trouble, he just did not show enough in the Tampa Bay Derby to be considered a serious Kentucky Derby contender. He remains on my list because that maiden win last year was still super fast, and trainer Brad Cox still has time to get back to that effort. I expect him to be bassed until then, though.
The Virginia Derby is Saturday at Colonial Downs, and I expect Getaway Car to back up his Sunland Derby performance and move up the ranks here.