Ky. Derby fair odds: Coal Battle stock rises after Rebel win

Look. I whiffed on Coal Battle, OK? Going into Rebel Stakes week, I made the three-time stakes winner 200-1 to win the Kentucky Derby and 20-1 to win the Rebel itself.

Well, he made his actual price of 11.9-1 look like a gift when beating the Bob Baffert-trained Madaket Road by 1 1/4 lengths with favored Sandman another 1 1/4 lengths back in third. He likely will face other Baffert trainees in the Arkansas and Kentucky derbys, but many saw the Grade 2 Rebel win as a triumph for "the little guy."

I saw it as a big step forward on the Coal Front colt's Triple Crown march. I did not love how Coal Battle stacked up on performance ratings going in to the Rebel, but his believers were rewarded Sunday at Oaklawn Park. Given the depth of this crop, believers might still get a decent price going forward.

Of course, Coal Front slayed only one of Baffert's many dragons. My top three horses on the accompanying fair odds all are trained by the Hall of Fame conditioner, including champion Citizen Bull and Barnes, who will look to earn his first points in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) on Saturday at Santa Anita Park against his stablemate Rodriguez, whom I have ranked third.

These fair odds are basically a de facto top 24 list for Kentucky Derby 2025, and each horse is lined as if this were a 24-horse field. The Fountain of Youth (G2) and Gotham (G3) on Saturday at Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct, respectively, join the San Felipe in offering 50 points to each winner.

I expect the San Felipe and Fountain of Youth to be the more productive of the two, given the former has two of my top three and the latter features four of my top 20.