Kentucky Derby Future Wager fair odds: Brown duo intrigues

A wrinkle on the sixth and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager for the 2025 run for the roses is that the pool closes at 4 p.m. EDT, before any of this weekend's final preps in America.

For those who are believers in Journalism, this could be an opportunity to turn a 5-2 Kentucky Derby favorite into 4-1, his morning-line price, or better. You're basically betting a parlay that he wins the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at even money and then the Kentucky Derby. I'm calling it a parlay because if he loses the Santa Anita Derby then his Kentucky Derby price likely will be higher than his closing future-wager price.

Even still, the 4-1 future-wager morning line feels light because if Journalism pays even money to win the Santa Anita Derby then he would have to be 3-2 for the Kentucky Derby for 4-1 to be equal value, and that does not even account for the risk of making it to a race four weeks after his previous one.

I see Journalism and fellow Santa Anita Derby entrant Citizen Bull as the most likely winners of this year's Kentucky Derby, but the value just is not there right now with a race between this bet and the Derby itself.

That's not to say horses running this weekend cannot offer some value. If bettors gravitate toward known commodities already in the race, such as recent prep winners, then that could drive up the price on horses running this weekend without the buzz of, say, Journalism.

Chad Brown trains two such horses in separate preps: Hill Road in the Wood Memorial (G2) and Chancer McPatrick in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1).

Both exit the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) 31 days ago at Tampa Bay Downs, where they both chased Owen Almighty. Hill Road was short that day, having fewer workouts than his stablemate as both made their first starts since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Now they're both in races with more speed than last time, and I expect at least one of them to move forward and assert himself as a legitimate Derby threat.

Several horses on the list are already in the Derby and assuredly will be shorter odds on May 3 than they will be here. Do not fall for the trap of thinking that makes them worth a bet. Giving you 4-5 on a coin flip now when it will be 3-5 in four weeks does not make taking 4-5 a good bet.

We'll know the results of one prep race this week while the pool is open. The UAE Derby (G2) has three of the 39 individual interests, led by Gotham Stakes winner Flood Zone. I am back to selling UAE horses after tabbing Forever Young last year. Forever Young is a generational talent who is favored to win the Dubai World Cup (G1). There are no Forever Youngs in this year's UAE Derby field.