Ky. Derby fair odds: Baffert is both underrated and overrated

Journalism was the understandable favorite in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 5 on Sunday night, closing at 5-1 in the field of 40 that includes 39 3-year-olds plus a field option.

What surprised me was that champion Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Citizen Bull was the 9-1 third choice and Barnes was the 15-1 fifth choice. Bob Baffert trains both colts. These rankings do not include the "all others" field option that closed at 10-1.

Of course it makes sense that Journalism would be a third the price of Barnes given his emphatic win over that foe in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes, but I'm not so sure Barnes's runner-up effort was worse than Sovereignty's Fountain of Youth (G2) win, and he was the 7-1 second choice.

Citizen Bull has done nothing wrong either, of course, winning his 3-year-old debut while pointing toward the Santa Anita Derby. I have him ahead of Journalism and would rather have bet him at 9-1 than Journalism at 5-1. But both were underlays at this point.

The one Baffert trainee who took too much money was Cornucopian. He was a dazzling maiden winner on debut but is on a collision course to be making only his third career start in the Kentucky Derby. That's assuming he performs well enough in his lone stakes try, which would come in career start no. 2. Horses making their third career start in the Derby are 0-for-6 since 1937, with T.O. Password's fifth-place finish last year the best of the sextet.

I thought Poster got overlooked at 69-1. Another underlay along with Cornucopian was Caldera as the 18-1 seventh choice. Not sure what anyone saw from Getaway Car's Virginia Derby that made them want to bet him after he lost to Caldera last out. Speaking of Getaway Car, I still have him among my top 24 because he has enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field.