Fair odds: Del Mar Oaks will have an undefeated underlay

Trainer Phil D’Amato ran one-two in the San Clemente Stakes (G2) last month at Del Mar with Iscreamuscream holding off stablemate Zona Verde.

Some new faces will show up to take them on in the Grade 1, $300,000 Del Mar Oaks on Saturday at 8:32 p.m. EDT, and there is every reason to bet Zona Verde will turn the tables on Iscreamuscream.

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First, if the morning line is correct, then Iscreamuscream is probably worth betting against even finishing in the trifecta. That is just too short a price on a horse who took a big step backward on The Sheets last time when stretching out to two turns. Now in this 1 1/8-mile turf test, she adds a half-furlong. She also is more likely to have company up front in shipper Whiskey Decision and in Medoro, who broke slowly last time when third in the San Clemente.

Zona Verde, meanwhile, should not have an issue with the distance. She improved slightly off a small layoff last time and should have more pace to close into this time.

If Iscreamuscream indeed is 8-5 as the morning line suggests, then Whiskey Decision probably will be worth betting in the mix as well. Her numbers are competitive with these, and while this is a big step up in class from listed to Grade 1, it's hard to ignore that she was 1-5 against eight others last out. That's respect.

The horses I like least are nos. 2, 7 and 8. The outside horses figure to be given outside chances by the public, but Circle of Trust is 6-1 on the morning line, and that is a definite underlay.

If the morning line prices on nos. 1 and 2 are correct, then I think there is value in something as simple as boxing 3, 4, 5 and 6 for $12 in an exacta and $12 in a trifecta. I'm a little nervous that nos. 1 and 3 will be closer in price, which makes nos. 4, 5 and 6 the potential plays.