Del Mar 2022: Play Sunday races with Pro Reports
Sunday's 11-race card at Del Mar is highlighted by the Grade 2 Eddie Read Stakes. Horse Racing Nation Pro Reports are available for every track, every day and offer insight from a variety of different handicapping angles.
Two-year-olds kick off the action in Race 1. The First-Time Starter Insights Report looks at which sires and trainers do well with debut runners, as well as second-time-starters.
The stat that immediately sticks out is that sire Collected is 0-for-10 with his first-time-starters so far. This is a small sample size, and his son No. 2 Cosmic Soul (12-1 morning line) does have some precocity on the female side of the family. However, others look much more appealing in this spot.
Prior experience is extremely valuable in these baby races, and both No. 5 Giovinazzo (8-1) and No. 8 Abeliefinthislivin (5-1) are making their second career starts. Giovinazzo is by Sharp Azteca who has impressive stats with his second-time-starters, winning at 44 percent.
In Race 2, the Horses to Single Report identifies No. 3 Laurel River (8-5) as one to rely on in multi-race sequences. This Juddmonte homebred will be making his sixth career start and has been off since last fall. Over the last 100 races, the Horses to Single Report has correctly picked winners 49 percent of the time.
Two-year-olds compete in Race 3, this time routing on the turf. So far this meet, the Track Trends Tool shows that winners are most frequently breaking from posts 4-6. Turf routes have also played kindly to closers, with almost half of the winners coming from off the pace.
More attention should be given to horses breaking from these middle posts, such as No. 4 Bring Him Home (6-1), No. 5 Russells Hustle (12-1), and No. 6 Eagles Landing (6-1).
Race 4 features invaders from Canterbury Park, Churchill Downs, Pleasanton, Emerald Downs, and Arizona Downs. Although out of state trainers had yet to win a race at Del Mar as of the first week, shippers with California based trainers have had more success.
Related: Ship and win? Out-of-state trainers go 0-for-19 at Del Mar
According to the Shipper Stats Report, Churchill Downs shippers are performing best of the aforementioned tracks, winning at 33 percent. Of the incoming new faces, No. 7 Hillstone Martini (12-1) could be likeliest to upset horses that have been running in California.
There's a vulnerable favorite in Race 7, according to the Sire Moves Report. No. 3 Ma France (7-2) is by Caravaggio, who has yet to sire a turf route winner from nine to attempt the added ground on the grass. This extra distance isn't predicted to benefit Ma France, and it would be unwise to take this horse at a short price.
An intriguing alternative could be No. 10 La Vikina (12-1) who should move up with the surface switch. Sire Many Rivers is 6 percent with dirt routers, but that improves to 14 percent with turf routers.