Del Mar 2021: Here are 10 ways to find winners this summer

Southern California bettors who had to watch from afar last summer will meet turf and surf again starting Friday, when Del Mar opens its 31-day season to a sold-out, full house.

As is the case at Saratoga, certain betting angles are treated like gospel by scores of horseplayers who bet Del Mar. But how many of them are considered winners?

In an ongoing series of preview stories, Horse Racing Nation has put together the thoughts of handicappers and insiders. On Friday, Part 1 dealt with winning angles at Saratoga. Then Monday, Part 2 identified some that are overrated.

Part 3: Here are 10 ways to be a winner this summer at Del Mar.

Look past Baffert, Miller

Mike Shutty, HRN Super Screener. While trainers Bob Baffert and Peter Miller continue to enjoy productive Del Mar summer meets, it is awfully difficult to get any wagering value on their charges. When seeking value, check out the following trainer stats from last summer’s meet. Simon Callaghan (11-for-32, 34 percent) was the leading percentage trainer last summer, with many of those winners firing at odds of 5-1 or better. For a great return, play Phil D’Amato turf-sprint, layoff starters. Last year 3 of 6 won as long shots. While trainer Richard Baltas rivals the Peter Miller barn when it comes to the volume of starters at Del Mar, pay extra attention to his first-time sprint starters; 3 of 6 won while offering value. In addition, Baltas was 4-for-6 with horses coming back off a claim.

Arcadia speed does not hold

Jeff Siegel, XBTV. Good prior form over the local dirt and turf tracks must be given some consideration. Recognize that speed generally sticks well over the bias-free Santa Anita main track, but it can be far less effective at Del Mar. Downgrade inflated speed figures earned by front-running types at Arcadia, and expect regression unless the pace flow projects to be unusually favorable. For the most part the inside lanes at Del Mar generally are deeper and slower, and rally-wide types – especially in sprints with faster-than-par early fractions – enjoy a considerable advantage. I always prefer outside draws in sprints. Speed duels in route races are almost always suicidal.

Jarrod Horak, Horse Racing Nation. Early speed was strong in dirt routes at the recently concluded Santa Anita Park meet. Front-runners won at least a third of the time, and if horses were not leading from wire to wire, pressers and stalkers took up the slack. Patient runners are capable of winning in dirt routes at Del Mar, and more frequent changes in the track profile can lead to money-making opportunities. When playing those dirt routes, do not be afraid to back runners unable to make up ground at Santa Anita. The Del Mar oval may be more to their liking, and give them bonus points if they have shown previous success at the seaside oval. 

Sires of 2-year-olds

Christina Blacker, TVG. I try to catch up-and-coming young sires in the baby races. For example, Danzing Candy is off to a great start with limited starters. If he keeps pace there could be some nice prices on his first-time starters this summer. When you consider the success of Candy Ride and Twirling Candy, he has every chance to become a very successful sire.

Better late than never

Shutty. Look for late-blooming 3-year-olds from top barns that started racing after January but have been away for 60-90 days. If they have shown sharp works, they are key plays at Del Mar, winning regularly at odds of 5-1 or longer. There are several plays available every summer that support this angle.

Riding the rails

Scott Shapiro, Brisnet. I’m going to pay attention to rails being out on the turf course. When there are no temporary rails, it’s one of the most fair turf courses around. Often times it may even benefit late runners. More important and more noticeable is how speed-favoring the turf course becomes once the rails are out. There are about three or four settings. The farther out they are, the more it benefits speed. Overall, avoid playing late-running types when the rails are out.

Go deep with sprint closers

Shutty. For 6 1/2- and seven-furlong dirt races featuring fields of 10 or more horses, look for those that feature at least four pace or stalker types, and then isolate that closer at 20-1 or longer whose final speed figure earned at Santa Anita is weak. See if that horse regularly passed rivals from the top of the stretch to the wire and finished fourth, fifth or sixth. Single this bomber in the third hole of the trifecta and the fourth hole of superfecta wagers. Use the other horses who you like and/or who figure in the other tiers. This is a top play and is one of the angles that accounts for the highest trifecta and superfecta payoffs in the meet while keeping the cost of your wagering tickets low.

All turf sprints are not alike

Reinier Macatangay, HRN. In Del Mar turf sprints, watch for horses at Santa Anita who faded or could not sustain their bids in six- or 6 1/2-furlong turf sprints. When Santa Anita put a stop to running downhill turf races, the track initially made its turf sprints five-furlong races on the main turf oval. Since, Santa Anita found a way to expand its turf-sprint distances by placing the starting gate on the main track to make six furlongs possible. Yet Del Mar cards five-furlong turf sprints, including Breeders’ Cup races in November. One less furlong is a huge difference to consider in handicapping.

Tools of the trade

Blacker. I use Stats Race Lens to help me find the more obscure pedigrees that could surprise. Phantom Wildcat is a stallion who has not been supported much, but I find his progeny outrun their odds. With a saved angle in my profile, Stats will find those horses for me and alert me when they run. More broadly, I use replays and Thoro-Graph for all other circumstances. You tend to have a tighter range when it comes to Thoro-Graph in turf races, so if you can combine that with a good tape you’ll be looking at a horse who is poised for success. A new product that I really like is Trip Note Pros. If you don’t have time to watch all the replays or are just understanding the nuances of a race, Trip Note can be a huge help.

Keep watching

Andy Harrington, NationalTurf.com. I don’t really have any “angles," but being a visual handicapper I obsess over two things: watching workouts and endless watching of race replays. I will usually take a good swing if I can get a sharp worker with a troubled trip in tow.

The weather report

Shapiro. It’s a unique climate in San Diego – in a good way for humans. Some horses thrive in that environment, and some horses don’t like it the way we do. It’s just not the same level of comfort for them, especially for shippers. Pay attention to horses that have had success at Del Mar – or those that have not but have had success elsewhere.