Del Mar 2021: 6 betting angles that might be overrated
The pandemic may have kept spectators away from Del Mar and Saratoga last summer. But as it fades, the fans will be back this week. After Saratoga gets started Thursday, Del Mar gets its turn to open Friday.
One thing is as certain in Southern California as the daily singing of “Where the Turf Meets the Surf.” While there is “a winner in each race,” there are also losers – both horses and angles.
In a series of previews of both Del Mar and Saratoga, Horse Racing Nation has polled handicappers and insiders for their best and worst tips.
Part 1: Winning angles at Saratoga.
Part 2: Saratoga strategies that are overrated.
Part 3: Tips to win at Del Mar.
This installment is Part 4: Six overrated betting strategies at Del Mar.
Beware of morning glories
Jeff Siegel, XBTV. Fast-working first-time starters tend to be overrated. California punters love to play hot-shot 2-year-olds from major barns. While many do win, most receive much stronger action than deserved. All things being equal, a horse with a prior outing over the track at Del Mar has a significant advantage. Additionally, while layoff runners on dirt must be dead fit, the grass course is a bit more forgiving, and a horse returning from a vacation can be played with a bit more confidence.
Alibis vs. excuses
Christina Blacker, TVG. Sometimes I think troubled-trip horses can be over-bet next out. This is where watching a replay and seeing how horses responded once they had the opportunity to run is key. Did they show anything in the late stages of the race? Or were they flat and one-paced late anyway and probably would not have won even with clear sailing?
Papa don’t preach winners
Mike Shutty, HRN Super Screener. Because of his past success, Richard Mandella draws a lot of wagering attention to his horses at Del Mar. But unlike many trainers, Mandella does not point to this meet in particular, and he enjoys more success when running at Santa Anita. Last summer at Del Mar, for example, Mandella’s starters won at an anemic 8 percent rate. It was not just last year. At the close of the 2019 summer meet his win rate was less than 15 percent.
Just say no to certain debutants
Shutty. Avoid first-time starters in maiden-claiming races, especially for 3 years old and up. The win record is abysmal – less than 5 percent – and it is even worse for route races. Even first-time starters in maiden special weight races fail miserably debuting in routes.
Course horse, of course
Andy Harrington, NationalTurf.com. The most overrated angle to me is horses for courses, a notion that seems to reach its apex every year during the Del Mar meet. These horses tend to get over-bet. I will take recency over a horse that has won previously at Del Mar, every time.
Not sure about rail
Bob Ike, HorseBills.com. Off the top of my head I would say pay attention to the old axiom that when the rails are out on the turf, speed holds much better than when the rails are at zero. There might be something to this, but I’m not sure it is that cut and dry. Treat every day as a new day when it comes to “bias,” whether it is turf or dirt. Just because the track played one way yesterday doesn’t mean it will be the same today or tomorrow.