DeRosa’s thoughts about the handicap in the Big ’Cap

I am firmly in the “weight matters” camp, which is why I see Why Why Paul Why having an equal chance of winning the Grade 1, $650,000 Santa Anita Handicap (G1) as Express Train.

Are they equal in talent? No. Are they equal when Express Train carries 7 pounds more than his adversary? I’ll pay to find out.

Clearly, given my fair odds, No. 2 Why Why Paul Why is the play, as he will almost certainly be a longer price than favored (and highweight) Express Train. I gave a slight edge to Warrant over Stilleto Boy because of the presence of Flavien Prat.

Lastly, pedigree played a role in my handicapping. Express Train’s sire, Union Rags, is a combined 0-for-15 with his progeny going 1 1/4 miles on dirt. Coupling that with him being highweight, and I just couldn’t find a more than 25 percent chance for the multiple graded-stakes winner.

In fact, the sires of the entire field are only a combined 2-for-34 at the classic distance on dirt, but Archarcharch, sire of Why Why Paul Why, is one of the two. The other is Constitution, sire of Warrant.