DeRosa: Ky. Derby fair odds show Tiz the Bomb the value
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As the Kentucky Derby field coalesces – and with it my fair odds line – there is a bold line between contenders and pretenders.
This update includes only the 20 horses expected to be in the main body of the field. So there is no Early Voting, ranked 15th by points, and no also eligibles. Twenty-first-ranked Pioneer of Medina draws in with the expected defection of Early Voting.
My top 10 candidates I give an 85 percent chance to win, and the bottom 10 I give only a 15 percent chance. The top and bottom five are even more telling with a 52.2 percent chance for my top five contenders vs. a 2.6 percent chance for the bottom five. In other words, a quarter of the field has better than half a chance.
| Kentucky Derby 2022 | Fair odds | Pct. |
|---|
| Epicenter | 5-1 | 16.667% |
| Zandon | 8-1 | 11.111% |
| Mo Donegal | 10-1 | 9.091% |
| Tiz the Bomb | 12-1 | 7.692% |
| Taiba | 12-1 | 7.692% |
| Messier | 12-1 | 7.692% |
| White Abarrio | 14-1 | 6.667% |
| Smile Happy | 15-1 | 6.250% |
| Charge It | 15-1 | 6.250% |
| Cyberknife | 16-1 | 5.882% |
| Pioneer of Medina | 25-1 | 3.846% |
| Simplification | 30-1 | 3.226% |
| Zozos | 30-1 | 3.226% |
| Tawny Port | 95-1 | 1.042% |
| Barber Road | 95-1 | 1.042% |
| Crown Pride | 100-1 | 0.990% |
| Un Ojo | 200-1 | 0.498% |
| Classic Causeway | 225-1 | 0.442% |
| Summer Is Tomorrow | 275-1 | 0.362% |
| Happy Jack | 300-1 | 0.332% |
| | | 100.000% |
That’s not to say the bottom five is impossible, though. Remember, 2.6 percent is the same chance of picking the correct number playing double zero in roulette. But it is to say that there is opportunity when it comes to betting this race, because those bottom five contenders absolutely will take more money than 2.6 percent of what’s bet. Even if they’re all 99-1 – impossible to fathom, given Derby wagering this century – that’s 4.1 percent, and it’s much more likely to be at least double that.
Comparing my line with current wagering information – current odds in Las Vegas, final odds of the last Kentucky Derby Future Wager, and morning lines such as Travis Stone’s – I see the most opportunity with Tiz the Bomb, Zandon and Pioneer of Medina. Epicenter is borderline, and as the most likely winner, I won’t want to lose if either Tiz the Bomb or Pioneer of Medina run well.
Check out our channel on YouTube for a Kentucky Derby 2022 playlist that includes prep analysis, contender updates and more.
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