DeRosa: Belmont Stakes fair odds reveal 2 value horses
In a quick comparison between my fair odds and the current bookmaker pricing for Belmont Stakes 2022, it is easy to figure out I think the value lies in the barn of Todd Pletcher.
The Hall of Fame trainer has a pair of chances to give his historic operation a Belmont four-bagger. I rate Remsen (G2) and Wood Memorial (G2) victor Mo Donegal the most likely winner of this year's race, but the filly Nest is very much in the mix as well off her runner-up finish in the Kentucky Oaks (G1).
See updated offshore odds for Belmont Stakes 2022.
Pletcher's three Belmont Stakes wins have come with a Kentucky Oaks winner (Rags to Riches) and two also rans from the Kentucky Derby (Palace Malice and Tapwrit), and both his likely entrants this year fit that pattern.
At 2:30 p.m. EDT on Monday, Mo Donegal was as short as 2.25-1 to win the Test of the Champion with Nest around 8-1. That would leave the filly, who I give a 9-2 chance of winning, as the best bet. However, I do think both Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike and Peter Pan (G3) winner We the People will take more money than the current market suggests, which could cause Mo Donegal to float to 3-1 in the pari-mutuels.
The other potential opportunity is on Skippylongstocking, the Preakness Stakes fifth-place finisher who traded above 15-1 on Monday afternoon. I give him a 10 percent chance to win the race.
Rich Strike and We the People are certain underlays based on my fair-odds line.
| Belmont Stakes 2022 | Fair odds | *Pct. | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mo Donegal | 3-1 | 25.0% | Todd Pletcher |
| Nest (f) | 9-2 | 18.2% | Todd Pletcher |
| We the People | 5-1 | 16.7% | Rodolphe Brisset |
| Creative Minister | 8-1 | 11.1% | Kenny McPeek |
| Skippylongstocking | 9-1 | 10.0% | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| Rich Strike | 10-1 | 9.1% | Eric Reed |
| Golden Glider | 18-1 | 5.3% | Mark Casse |
| Barber Road | 20-1 | 4.7% | Johnny Ortiz |
| * Rounded to tenths | |||
| f - Filly |