DeRosa ’21 recap: Dunbar Road’s Breeders’ Cup loss still stings
My year-in-review is below. I also discussed it with Jason Beem on the Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast.
No one likes bad-beat stories, and it seems especially egregious to blame a bad beat for my second-worst performance, wagering wise, in a seven-year period. But I can’t help but wonder how 2021 would have panned out had Dunbar Road gotten her nose down first in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
But she didn’t, and nothing else went as right as that almost did for the rest of the year, so we’re stuck with a minus-9.33 percent return on investment for 2021.
This is slightly better than my minus-10.52 percent ROI for 2010-21, so my overall ROI since keeping track of such things in 2010 ticks up slightly over this 12-year period to minus-10.39 percent.
I’m disappointed that I couldn’t keep the “positive” (i.e., less negative) trend from 2019-20 going in 2021. Looking back, 2019 was my worst year ever (an abominable minus-25.75 percent) that improved to minus-4.38 percent in 2020. An ROI of less than minus-10 percent is still better than the vast majority of players, but obviously not where I want to be considering the time and effort I put into this.
My top tracks in 2021 were Golden Gate, Gulfstream Park, Keeneland Race Course, Parx Racing, Prairie Meadows, Remington Park and Tampa Bay Downs. I was profitable when wagering on all of those facilities. Mahoning and Mountaineer were close but no cigar. My worst were Belterra Park, Canterbury Park, Colonial Downs, Del Mar, Ellis Park, Fair Grounds and Pimlico.
My best wagering types were win and exacta (positive). I did OK on doubles, Pick 3s, Pick 4s, and Pick 5s. Total flameout on everything else, including a big nosedive on the Pick 6 vs. the other multis.
What I really want to talk about most from all that, though, is Pimlico, because it touches on two things that I can’t figure out when betting: the Preakness week card and Maryland racing.
I successfully avoided Laurel Park in 2021. After years of getting my brains beat in there chasing Pick 5 carryovers, I finally said no más and laid off completely. As you can read from my list of tracks above, I’m not against playing anywhere, but when the data year after year clearly show no hope (we’re talking more than minus-50 percent ROI at Laurel always), then it’s OK to just say that track isn’t for me.
And so it’s going to need to go for Preakness week. Maybe it’s the 25.75 percent takeout on Pick 3s and 4s and steady stream of chalk, but the numbers are bad year after year, and it’s time to resolve to avoid those races with any significant gusto.
Big events in general continue to be a small leak on my game. My ROI on Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont and Breeders’ Cup weekends in the last 5 years are roughly minus-14 percent, while my ROI otherwise is roughly minus-9 percent.
I need to be more judicious with my “big day” approach – both in terms of bankroll allocation and not pressing so hard when things are going well early. For example, I had a fantastic Oaks day this year and basically just let it rip on Derby day.
The most interesting connection between all this research is that my best “flat bet ROI” off the grid is taking the longest price of any horse listed. Coupling this with being profitable in win and exacta wagering tells me I should be much more sensitive to real-time odds with horses I believe are worth considering.