Super Screener: Natalma best chance to beat Appleby at Woodbine

It is a big day of racing on Saturday at Woodbine with a trio of Grade 1 races that serve not only as Breeders' Cup prep races but also stand alone as top events in their divisions.

The three races also comprise the $5 Turf Champions pick 3, beginning with the Summer Stakes, continuing with the Natalma and concluding with the Woodbine Mile. All three are at a two-turn mile on the inner course.

This week's Super Screener handicaps the Natalma and Woodbine Mile as well as a quartet of stakes from opening weekend at Churchill Downs including the kickoffs on the Roads to the Kentucky Oaks and Derby: the Pocahontas and Iroquois Stakes, respectively.

We're setting our sites on the Natalma because of its important place on the Woodbine wagering menu as a key leg to that aforementioned all-turf pick 3 as well as the mandatory payout pick 6. Many bettors will be complacent to use the logical horses in the hopes of moving on, but Mike Shutty is clear about Super Screener's preference.

"This race sets up to provide No. 10 Deep Learning from Chad Brown's barn with a race flow advantage, as she will serve as the back marker in this race with the expectation that the pace comes back to her in a hurry," Shutty writes. "She is the only filly in this race that has experience at a route, which is another advantage to go along with her run style.

"Form-cycle analysis results call for a move forward in this start. She has worked steadily since her debut win, and there is no reason to think Brown will not have her ready for a top performance here."

For those looking for a longshot, No. 8 caught the Screener's eye as a filly capable of moving forward as the distances get longer.

Super Screener is available weekly and includes selections, analysis and wagering strategy for each race. Subscribe to Super Screener now, and get all eight editions between now and Breeders' Cup plus daily Power Picks and Horses to Single reports.