Cotillion fair odds: Local prep winners have edge at big odds

One of the more reliable cliches in horse-racing handicapping is that Grade 1 winners win Grade 1 races, but I am willing to buck that convention wisdom in the Cotillion Stakes on Saturday at Parx.

With Grade 1 winners Scottish Lassie, La Cara and Good Cheer vying for divisional supremacy, the money is likely to follow that storyline as well.

Scottish Lassie has the single best performance of the three when winning the Country Club American Oaks (G1) by 15 lengths over last year's champion 2-year-old filly Immersive. But that was a huge jump forward forward for the McKinzie filly, and the presence of La Cara, among others, makes another gate-to-wire blitz unlikely for either of them.

That makes Good Cheer intriguing from a run-style perspective as she is one of only two entrants without an "E" or "E/P" designation in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances. She will be running late, but I just doubt the price will be worth it.

Indy Bay has limited two-turn experience. She won the seven-furlong Charles Town Oaks (G2) around two turns but never has been beyond that. The 1 1/16 miles of the Cotillion might be her limit, but she gets six pounds from the Grade 1 winners, and that is not insignificant.

Dry Powder also intrigues, but I ultimately sided with Indy Bay as a preference because of the weight. Dry Powder carries 122 versus Indy Bay's 120. But her winning the local prep for this from an outside post is a solid path to trying to turn tables on Scottish Lassie from the CCA Oaks.

From a wagering standpoint, there is a big opportunity in the Parx half of the Pennsylvania Pick 4, considering I'm against the favorites in both the Cotillion and Pennsylvania Derby (G1). So I will use both Indy Bay and Dry Powder as my main selections. Vertically, Good Cheer is the chalk I'd lean on most given her run style. Ourdaydreaminggirl could be worth an underneath key given she is the only deep closer.