Cotillion Stakes 2018: Odds and analysis
Eight 3-year-old fillies have been entered for Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Cotillion Stakes with this year’s Kentucky Oaks winner Monomoy Girl up against familiar rivals in the 1 1/16-mile event.
Second in the Oaks (Wonder Gadot) and third (Midnight Bisou) will get another crack at the division leader. Monomoy Girl has won four straight Grade 1 races as she closes in on a bid at the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
Ahead of post time for Race 10 at Parx, which goes one before the featured Pennsylvania Derby, is 4:55 p.m. ET. Here’s a look at the Cotillion field with morning line odds:
1. Norma’s Charm, 20-1 (Creative Cause – Uriah St. Lewis/Jockey TBD – 17:1-2-5 – $105,385): This filly will likely be the longest shot on the board. It took her 11 tries to break her maiden, finally doing so at six furlongs in April at Parx. Her best race since was a runner-up finish in the Alma North Stakes at Laurel Park. She was eighth in the Victory Ride (G3) and fifth in the Test (G1). Both of those stakes winners are also back here. She last ran sixth sprinting in Saratoga allowance company. Needs a softer spot to be competitive.
2. Monomoy Girl, 3-5 (Tapizar – Brad Cox/Florent Geroux – 9:8-1-0 – $1,660,750): Monomoy Girl has been nearly untouchable. She’s a neck shy of perfect in nine starts and has won four straight Grade 1s in the Ashland, Kentucky Oaks, Acorn and Coaching Club American Oaks. She has already beaten Wonder Gadot, Midnight Bisou and Chocolate Martini twice. Wonder Gadot nearly caught her in the Kentucky Oaks at 1 1/8 miles – the same distance as the upcoming Distaff – but the Cotillion distance is to Monomoy Girl’s advantage if both fillies run their best. Clearly the filly to beat.
3. Jump Ruler, 20-1 (Roman Ruler – Kelly Breen/Albin Jimenez – 8:3-3-1 – $117,750): This is an awful big boost in class for Jump Ruler, who makes her first stakes start. She started in the maiden claiming ranks, moved up to starter allowances and most recently won a one-mile allowance optional claiming race at Monmouth by 14 ¼ lengths. The margin of victory is impressive, but she’s yet to face company like she is in the Cotillion. Talent at this level is questionable.
4. Wonder Gadot, 6-1 (Medaglia d’Oro – Mark Casse/John Velazquez – 14:5-4-3 – $1,381,261): If you scratch a line through her last race, the Travers, Wonder Gadot appears to hold the best chance to beat Monomoy Girl. She lost by only half a length in the Kentucky Oaks following an objection for interference by the winner. The filly hit her best stride in Canada, beating males in the first two legs of the Canadian Triple Crown. After a rough go in the Travers and taking in a lot of dirt, she finished last. In her four works since, she’s earned two bullets at four furlongs. Casse likes at least 1 1/8 miles for this filly, so the distance could be a touch short for her. On the plus side, regular jockey Velazquez is back on after riding Vino Rosso in the Travers. Looks fit and ready for a rematch.
5. Separationofpowers, 10-1 (Candy Ride – Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz – 6:3-0-1 – $707,300): This filly wowed in her last start, rallying to a gutsy neck victory in the seven-furlong Test (G1). When she’s won, she’s been impressive, but she’s lightly raced and has not won a route race. The one time she ran the Cotillion distance was last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), finishing fourth. She scored in the one-mile Frizette (G1) a race prior to that. The Cotillion will be only her third start this season, and while the class is there, the credentials for this distance against these fillies fall short. Classy filly might be better sprinting.
6. Chocolate Martini, 12-1 (Broken Vow – Tom Asmoss/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 10:3-0-3 – $365,936): Earlier this year Chocolate Martini went from a $25,000 claim to a Grade 2 winner in the Fair Grounds Oaks, winning by a head over eventual Alabama (G1) winner Eskimo Kisses and Wonder Gadot. She ran fifth in the Kentucky Oaks then returned for show finishes in the Summertime Oaks (G2) and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). She’s a respectably filly in this division, but will need a big upset to capture the Grade 1. Can pick up the pieces in this field.
7. Midnight Bisou, 5-1 (Midnight Lute – Steve Asmussen/Mike Smith – 9:4-3-2 – $823,000): Midnight Bisou was favored over Monomoy Girl in the Kentucky Oaks but ended up third. She rebounded in the Mother Goose (G2), winning by six lengths after moving to Asmussen’s East Coast barn from Bill Spawr in California. She was bested by Monomoy Girl again in the CCA Oaks before running third as the Alabama favorite. Good chance to finish in the money with improvement.
8. Dixie Serenade, 15-1 (Uptowncharlybrown – Ed Coletti/Mychel Sanchez – 12:4-5-1 – $286,750): This Pennsylvania-runner sprung a huge upset in the Victory Ride, earning her first stakes win while Separationofpowers ran fourth in her seasonal debut. Dixie Serenade then lost by a head in the Jose L. Flores Memorial at Parx. Both races were 6 ½ furlongs. She also has a pair of allowance wins sprinting. The Cotillion is longer and tougher than the Victory Ride, but it’s worth watching this filly down the road to see if she can replicate that performance again. Another big upset unlikely here.
Summary: Monomoy Girl will be the one everyone wants to chase and it won’t be surprising to see her and Wonder Gadot hook up early. If the Travers really is a race to toss, then we could be in for a real horse race. And unless Monomoy Girl regresses, she’ll be tough to beat. If Midnight Bisou fails to bounce back, Chocolate Martini stands a good shot to hit the board, as does Separationofpowers if she can stretch out.