Cotillion fair odds: Exotics offer strong betting opportunity
It is extremely rare that I get excited about the wagering possibilities in a race with an underlaid 1-5 favorite, but the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes on Saturday at Parx provides such an opportunity.
For those racing this before Friday night, it is important to note that one of those opportunities is in the two-day two-track Pick 4. The wager includes stakes on Friday from Presque Isle Downs and on Saturday from Parx: The Presque Isle Mile and Presque Isle Masters (G2) at the former and the Cotillion and the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) at the latter. If it's Saturday, skip ahead past the graphic.
I like a couple three-year-old fillies in the Masters who will not be favored, so my plan for this two-day Pick 4 with 15 percent takeout is to lean on those sophomores in the Masters, single Thorpedo Anna, and take some shots against likely favorite Dragoon Guard in the Pennsylvania Derby.
As for betting the Cotillion itself, there is opportunity vertically as Mystic Lake is the 12-1 seventh choice on the morning. Now, admittedly, I'm not buying that as Horse Racing Nation has her projected to be anywhere from second to fourth choice in the field of eight, but I do think fillies such as Power Squeeze, Tarifa, Sidamara and Gun Song all figure to take "second money" as the altneratives behind Thorpedo Anna.
Whether Mystic Lake is second or sixth choice behind Thorpedo Anna among those other contenders is immaterial because she is the only horse I'll be using with the favorite. Of course, I'll play Mystic Lake to win if she's above my fair odds, but I expect her to be value in the exacta with the heavy favorite, so I'll play a big straight exacta with Thorpedo Anna over Mystic Lake and a small backup of Mystic Lake over Thorpedo Anna.
As for the Pennsylvania Derby day multi-race wagers at Parx, as noted above, I do like Stronghold quite a bit in the Pennsylvania Derby, and leaning on him will allow me to have a small back up with Mystic Lake, but I'm mainly focused on Thorpedo Anna being a lock here, which allows spreading to horses like Doc Sullivan and Timeout.