The 6 Kentucky Derby 2019 prep replays you need to see
Before betting on the 2019 Kentucky Derby, remember that you’re placing a wager against your peers, the general public.
Many have seen all the replays, memorized past performances and absorbed every data point related to 3-year-olds who will each be asked to run the longest race so far in their young careers.
RELATED: All Kentucky Derby prep replays
Count us in that group, and as further replay analysis occurred, six moments from the major Derby preps stood out. Are there excuses for contenders who enter off a defeat? Or reason a higher choice could be vulnerable?
Consider these -- and if you think we're missing a vital moment worth studying, include it in the comments below.
Improbable’s trouble at the start
The race itself won’t tell the entire story of Improbable’s Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up. Thankfully, Oaklawn Park’s archived video includes the full gate load.
It was then that the Bob Baffert trainee, donning blinkers in a race for the first time, became fractious in the gate while the rest of the field loaded in. There was concern by connections that he’d be scratched. The gate crew unloaded Improbable, allowed him to circle and walked him back into the inside stall.
How much energy did Improbable waste before trying to run down Omaha Beach? Baffert wanted his runner in the race earlier, hence the equipment change, but plans to take the blinkers off on Derby day.
Now Improbable’s preferred pace is an unknown. Will he continue to run from off it, or will Baffert try to send without the blinkers on? And did the stress of the gate load factor at all in the City Zip colt winding up a length short of Omaha Beach?
Game Winner plays into Roadster’s roll
Baffert’s Santa Anita Derby (G1) instructions to Game Winner's jockey, Joel Rosario, were simple: Don’t let Instagrand get away.
The distance limitations for the speedy rival were unknown, and Instagrand popped right out of the gate and to the lead. But with a four-wide charge into the far turn, Game Winner turned up the pressure. A quartet of horses distanced themselves from the rest.
And it set up well for Roadster, who looked to be spinning his wheels through the turn before uncorking a winning rally.
The Baffert stablemate had to win or place in the Santa Anita Derby to move on to Churchill Downs. Game Winner, meanwhile, had already confirmed himself as a contender on qualifying points. That dynamic’s something to think about ahead of the May 4 race, in which Roadster's expected to go off at shorter odds than Game Winner.
Tacitus steadies — twice
We’re lucky the run up to the first turn in the Wood Memorial (G2) didn’t result in a disaster.
Joevia, from the outside stall, broke like a shot and attempted to cross over before the bend. That made Tacitus, under jockey Jose Ortiz, steady for the first time. More trouble followed.
Into the turn, Tax, another Derby contender, drifted out, causing Tacitus to brush up against Overdeliver to his outside, and for Ortiz to stand up on his mount until he got back into stride.
Joevia was disqualified. Tax didn’t fall under a stewards’ ruling. Tacitus somehow went on to win that race, making him a candidate to hit the board in the Derby regardless of the difficulty in his trip.
A merry-go-round major prep
The narrative surrounding the Florida Derby (G1) changed as soon as the gates opened and Hidden Scroll, considered a top Kentucky Derby contender after his flashy, Jan. 26 debut, didn’t shoot to the lead.
Instead, Maximum Security — a homebred for Gary and Mary West who began his career in the claiming ranks — set an easy pace. He never looked back, galloping through fractions of 24.42, 48.98 and 1:12.90 while carrying with him the maiden Bodexpress, who ran second throughout and is now one defection away from making the Kentucky Derby.
This result set up two dilemmas for handicappers.
First, is Maximum Security your Derby pace-setter, and will he handle more pressure on the lead? Second, the Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Code of Honor had nothing to chase in the merry-go-round race, winding up third. Remember that last year, Instilled Regard faced a similar scenario in the Santa Anita Derby, then cracked the Top 4 as the highest price on the board in the Kentucky Derby, triggering a $19,000 superfecta payout.
Long Range Toddy has shown better
When Churchill Downs track announcer Travis Stone assembled a prospective Kentucky Derby morning line for us this week, he set Long Range Toddy at 50-1. That's huge value on a contender with a swift turn of foot.
He didn’t do much running in the Arkansas Derby on a rainy Saturday at Oaklawn Park. But two starts back, this Steve Asmussen trainee won the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) with a shrewd ride under jockey Jon Court, who’s poised to become the Derby’s oldest rider on record at age 58.
That day, Court and Toddy nabbed Improbable, who took a wide trip. But over a fast track, he ran back to the type of form we saw at age 2 when the son of Take Charge Indy won Remington Park’s Springboard Mile.
If you’re looking for an under-the-radar type to fill out a Superfecta ticket, there’s a case to be made for Long Range Toddy.
War of Will: contender or pretender?
You've seen by now what happened when War of Will left the gate in the Louisiana Derby (G2): took a bad step, suffered a minor injury in his hind end, and now he’s back to work as a puzzling Kentucky Derby prospect.
To open his campaign, the former turf runner went 2-for-2 at Fair Grounds, winning the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2) with similarl runs. Simply, Tyler Gaffalione rode War of Will like he was the best horse in the race and was rewarded for it.
That was especially true two back in the Risen Star. Wearing the No. 14 saddle towel, War of Will had just one horse to his outside. By the first turn, any disadvantage from the post position disappeared as he ran right up to press the pace.
That day, all horses on or near the lead aside from the winner faded. So if he’s as happy and healthy as all connections say, what’s that mean for War of Will’s Kentucky Derby candidacy?