Colonial Downs' Tuesday Pick 5 is wide open and contentious

Rating your opinions opens up a range of betting possibilities that efficient and low-budget horseplayers cannot ignore. You can use any system, but the most common parlance is ABCs. “A” refers to the contenders you believe have the best chances to win, or the opinions you are most interested in cashing. “C” encompasses the least likely contenders among those who are possible, and the opinions you are less confident about.

Efficient and budget-conscious players – which we all should be – can cast a wider net, creating a more dynamic range of payouts by using ABC ticket construction. Last week I rated my opinions as As and Bs. Though I was very interested in the payout of beating two vulnerable favorites, I still wanted to capitalize on other valuable opinions in the sequence if either won – which one did. Making them both Bs added $17.50 to the price of my wager: $106.50. We were able to hit the Pick 5 at $328.45 by using 4 As and 1 B. If I faded altogether, I get $0.

By adding these to my tickets in a secondary position, I turned that wager into a 19-1 on the $17.50. A tiny profit but betting capital preserved, and the question always is: in the long term will this increase or decrease my ROI? Keep track of how much you are spending on moves like this, and how often you hit a sequence. And now, keep in mind that they are situational, not universal. 

For Tuesday’s Pick 5 starting with Race 5, four of the races seem wide open to me. I could pass the sequence, or simply spend more time on ticket construction, parsing out the contenders into ABCs. I chose to put the work in because I am against two favorites. I will not use the favorites on my tickets as back-ups this week because I do not have as strong of opinions in the other legs, therefore I am less confident of 4 As and 1B or 1 C coming in. Because of that, I keep skinny in each column, trying to not have more than 2 As, Bs or Cs in each leg, and playing more tickets that mix and match between these. Here’s the ticket. Analysis is below.

The ticket

Race 5   As: 1,8   Bs: 5,6   C: 4

Race 6   As: 7,8   Bs: 1,4   C: 3

Race 7   A: 7       Bs: 4,6   Cs: 5,8

Race 8   A: 9

Race 9   As: 5,8   Bs: 3,6

50-cent ticket using only As: $4

50-cent ticket using 4 As and 1 B: $20

50-cent ticket using 3 As and 2 Bs: $36

50-cent ticket using 4 As and 1 C: $12

50-cent ticket using 3As, 1 B, 1 C: $40

Total cost = $112.00

Race 5

As: The No. 1 Azure Sky (15-1) has a decent late move on the turf, though he made it too early in his last race and didn't have anything left at the end. Should work out a ground-saving trip from the rail and be coming late. No. 8 Barahin (4-1) returns to turf where he has run well but never won, though earning the best Beyers of the field on the surface.

Bs: No. 5 Tapit Brio (7-2) races back with little rest, dropping in class. Hard to trust, but hard to deny he has the speed figures and a class edge. No. 6 One Lucky Day (8-1) ran a dirt sprint last out that didn't go well, but he had a tough trip into the first turn the time before at this level which put him further back than his running style could manage. I’ll give him another shot at a price.

C: No. 4 Virginia Fulla (10-1) could improve off the first turf effort, and might have a nice pace setup in here.

Race 6

As: No. 1 Mick'sbestbetyet (9-2) will likely press and pounce against this shaky field, or might get the jump and ride the rail to the lead. Either way, the drop in class is right on time. In terms of frontrunners, I want No. 7 Myrrh (12-1) who has shown a nice early lick but tired after dueling through the first two calls in her return after nearly three years away.

Bs: No. 4 Brass Band (15-1) is another contender who has run early pace figures that project her near enough the lead that the jockey might give a full send. Speed has been doing well on the dirt at Colonial Downs. No. 8 Fashion Icon (12-1) is interesting here aiming for the route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt score.

C: No. 3 El Milagra (5-1) ran well first back from the layoff and could step forward from there, especially if the pace melts down.

Race 7

A: No. 7 Till The End (3-1) looks to keep winning by facing lesser than last out. This will be the second outing from a high percentage barn who is looking to make some hay while the sun is shining.

Bs: No. 4 Bassett (8-1) comes out for Vance who is successful at claiming and moving to turf. The second attempt specifically with this horse, so there must be something here he likes. Let’s give the Ghostzapper gelding No. 6 Zonic (20-1) a second shot on the turf.

Cs: Having never won at this distance and with just one win from 14 turf tries, it is hard to trust No. 5 Colonist (4-1), who will likely be shorter than the morning line price. But the figures are there and the drop in class could turn the tides. No. 8 Mystery Bank (6-1) will be looking to steal this one on the lead but will have company.

Race 8

A: No. 9 Lontano (5-2) towers over the field in terms of back speed and class. Also he is successful at this distance and comes out for Stidham who has begun the meet well and scores near 30% with class-droppers recently into his barn.

Race 9

As: No. 5 Brightsideoflife (8-1) had a tough trip two back, was dull last out, and now drops in class. It’s worth it for us to forgive the last outing. No. 8 Reyna de Varano (9-5) smashed N2L company and now moves up. Luckily, this field will not discourage her.

Bs: No. 3 Red Wind (8-1) is a consistent type, gets Karamanos, a class drop and will likely be aggressive near the front end. No. 6 Cotia (6-1) has sharp work coming in after winning her first try on the turf and going two turns.