Midland: How to play coast-to-coast Pick 5 kicking off Saturday
I wrote last year about how well the coast-to-coast Pick 5 paid last year. The wager returns for 2024. It kicks off again today at 4:06 p.m. EST with races from Gulfstream and Santa Anita.
Several unique factors make this an interesting wager, but most importantly it is a $1 base Pick 5 with a low 15 percent takeout. This makes it tougher to get coverage on your tickets at a $1 base, which can lead to higher payoffs, and the 15 percent takeout only helps.
Anecdotally, because this wager covers two tracks and doesn't offer daily double probables into the second race like a normal Pick 5, there are likely fewer computer groups playing this wager which also helps the payouts.
To refresh on pool sizes and payoffs, here were the results of the first five coast-to-coast wagers in 2023.
Here are some of my thoughts on handicapping this sequence:
Gulfstream Park race 9
I'm focusing on the no. 1 Madame Mischief, who is a Super Screener long shot play at 15-1, along with favorites no. 4 Ozara (5-2) and no. 12 Life's an Audible (2-1).
Gulfstream Park race 10
There's a lot of hype around Valiant Force (7-5) who comes in off a fast closing second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, but I will also use no. 1 Sir Flash (8-1) who broke poorly but ran well at Tampa last time. I also want to see what no. 3 Ship to Shore (8-1) does with another start on dirt.
Santa Anita race 5
The no. 10 Island Cruiser was bet down to 5-2 as a first-time starter before breaking slowly and closing with a rush to lose by a head. He looks like a solid play back. I'm also looking at the no. 11 E J Won the Cup (7-2) who could get an easy lead as well as the no. 2 Money Makes Money (4-1) who ran well first time out. Another I'm considering is no. 8 Sketchy (20-1) who had trouble in the E J Won the Cup race but will probably only use if there are additional scratches in the sequence.
Gulfstream Park race 11
This field is whittled down to just six runners after scratches and I'm going to focus on the no. 3 Depiction (8-1), no. 4 Tocayo (30-1) and no. 9 Frontline Warrior (15-1) while fading no. 10 Agate Road (8-5). That one was fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last time out, but he's a slow moving grinder that may not have enough time to get up on the shorter Gulfstream Park stretch. Note with four scratches, all of those morning lines will change dramatically, but I provided them for reference.
Santa Anita race 7
This is a tricky wide-open race going down the hill with several in good form. I'm focusing on no. 4 Miss Lizzy (5-1) and no. 8 Diamonds Danzing (6-1) first, with some interest in no. 1 Lunar Impact (4-1), no. 2 Cast Member (7-2) and no. 7 Tickle My Fancy (5-1) as possible throw-ins on the ticket.
Good luck and remember there is another coast-to-coast Pick 5 on Sunday!