Coaching Club American Oaks 2018: Odds and analysis
The big horses have scared off the competition in Sunday’s Grade 1 feature at Saratoga, the $300,000 Coaching Club American Oaks, with top fillies Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou set to clash going 1 1/8 miles.
With this race for 3-year-olds won in recent years by the likes of champions Abel Tasman (2017) and Songbird (2017), who’s next? Here’s the field with early morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation:
1. Chocolate Martini, 10-1 (Broken Vow — Tom Amoss — 9: 3-0-2): Amoss always had this race on the schedule for the claimer-turned-Grade 2 winner. It’s shaped up as an especially tough spot given the Top 2 choices. But since transferred to Amoss, Chocolate Martini’s worst result in four starts is her fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks. She ran on the West Coast, hitting the board last out in the Summertime Oaks when given little pace at which to run. Expect her to position behind even Midnight Bisou early and look for another third-place effort. It’s noteworthy she remains on schedule.
2. Midnight Bisou, 2-1 (Midnight Lute — Steve Asmussen — 7: 4-2-1): In her first start since moved to the Steve Asmussen barn, this filly rolled in the Mother Goose. Consider the compact field an advantage with Midnight Bisou known to close — there will be less traffic — as she seeks to trim the 4 1/4-length margin she was back of Monomoy Girl in the Kentucky Oaks. Granted, that day Midnight Bisou didn’t get the cleanest of breaks, and she looked brilliant running back just shy of two months later. Her Mother Goose Beyer was a 94 under a hand ride. Second choice looks to turn the tables.
3. Eskimo Kisses, 12-1 (To Honor and Serve — Kenny McPeek — 8: 2-4-0): Credit connections for continuing to give this filly a chance. She was second to Chocolate Martini in the Fair Grounds Oaks, second to Monomoy Girl in the Ashland Stakes and fourth in the Kentucky Oaks. Before that, the Gainesway homebred quickly progressed through conditions, breaking her maiden Feb. 1 and winning an allowance Feb. 22. She’s another dead closer, though, in a field devoid of pace. Will be fresh, but would prefer a hotter pace.
4. Monomoy Girl, 3-5 (Tapizar — Brad Cox — 8: 7-1-0): The anticipated betting favorite has lost just once in eight career starts and is unbeaten in four races this year. Impressively, her Beyer Speed Figures have climbed at each asking, with her victory cutting back in the Acorn earning a 98, one point better than the 97 she received in the Kentucky Oaks. Monomoy Girl doesn’t need the early lead, but expect to find her there given the makeup of this short field. If she continues this steady progress, she’ll be tough to beat. The lone speed looks tough to beat.
5. Gio Game, 20-1 (Gio Poniti — Mark Casse — 8: 2-3-2): She figures to take up just behind Monomoy Girl early, and could perhaps benefit the bevy of closers. Gio Game was third in the Acorn last out behind Monomoy Girl and Talk Veuve to me, who went on to win the Indiana Oaks. Stretching from eight to nine furlongs could be a benefit, as this one was still running on at the end of the Acorn. That said, she was outclassed finishing ninth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and in the Acorn she beat a pair of horses — Moonshine Memories and Caledonia Road — who were much better at age 2. This serves as another class test.
Summary: It’s tough to pick against Monomoy Girl given the likely pace scenario. Expect a two-horse race, and perhaps Midnight Bisou will sit closer than normal to remain in striking distance. In the dash for third, don’t count out Gio Game should she be entered. Overall, this race is a summer highlight to watch, but not necessarily bet.