Clues from past bids signal Justify's Triple Crown chances

Mike Shutty authors Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system, now available for the Belmont Stakes offering full-field analysis, longshots and wagering strategies.

Since 2008, we have had four Triple Crown bids on the line which included:

• 2008: Big Brown – Pulled up in the race as the odds-on favorite.

• 2012: I’ll Have Another – Scratched the eve of the race with an injury.

• 2014: California Chrome – Finished fourth as the odds-on favorite.

• 2015: American Pharoah – The first Triple Crown winner in 37 years!

This year, of course, we have the thrill and anticipation of yet another potential Triple Crown score by the undefeated Bob Baffert-trained phenom, Justify. By all indications he is coming into the 2018 Belmont Stakes training well, but so were all the horses for their respective tries.

What are the potential clues that led to the triumphant outcome we witnessed with American Pharoah versus the failures of those that had come into the Belmont as highly regarded, odds-on favorites…but in the end, could not get the job done? Let’s take a look at the past performances of the above players (excluding I’ll Have Another, who did not run in Belmont) to uncover key insights that will help us more empirically assess Justify's Triple Crown chances.

• He posted double tops in the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby but in winning the Preakness he did so with a 10-point drop in his Brisnet Speed Rating

• Let’s face it: He was an exceptional specimen among a very weak 2008 3-year-old crop. Even running back to his Preakness race would have sealed the deal, but he was a tired horse coming into the Belmont

• Mystery still surrounds the reason Kent Desormeaux pulled Big Brown up, as the horse was sound the next day.  

• Like other Triple Crown bidders of the past, a drop in the Brisnet Speed Rating from the Kentucky Derby to Preakness is not a positive indicator and it is even more critical if that point drop exceeds five points. That was the most critical red flag in an otherwise unblemished record.

• Despite the competitive advantage he enjoyed, California Chrome finished in a dead heat for fourth with Wicked Strong as the favorite at odds of 4-5. A solid new shooter in Tonalist won the race. Both improbable long shot Commissioner and Medal Count finished ahead of California Chrome at monster odds.

• What we believe led to the disappointing outcome was the fact that California Chrome left his best race at Pimlico. That was his sixth start without a significant break, which made it difficult to find another move forward. In fact, he was ripe to regress after three good races with no significant differences among the Brisnet Speed Ratings earned. His trip in the Belmont wasn’t ideal, but it shouldn’t have prevented victory. 

• Also note that while he defied his “sprinter” breeding (Average Winning Distance of both Sire and Dam was 6.5 furlongs) in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, it caught up with him going that extra quarter mile in the Belmont stakes. This was a horse desperately in need of a break.

• He sported an established foundation, racing three times as a juvenile and then had only four races under his belt as a sophomore in a carefully managed campaign before heading on to the final leg of the Triple Crown.

• He essentially ran the same race in the Arkansas Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes (and that’s all he needed to do) with his modest Brisnet Speed Ratings that ranged from 100-102, leaving plenty of room for upside.

• In the 2015 Belmont Stakes he faced no early competition and was able to control the pace, rolling to a no-doubt score to take down the Crown. He just didn’t share the same knocks that we had seen with Big Brown and California Chrome regarding declining figures, too much racing or inadequate stamina breeding. He came into the Belmont Stakes the right way.

• Of concern, however, is the fact that he got a late start to his career debuting just more than three months ago and has already raced five times in a compressed time period. Past Triple Crown bidders like California Chrome, Charismatic and Real Quiet shared similar “heavy duty” campaigning leading up to their defeats in the Belmont Stakes.

• Perhaps creating even greater pause is the two consecutive, significant drops in his Brisnet Speed Rating over his last two races after peaking in the Santa Anita Derby. Had he followed that 12-point drop in the Kentucky Derby with even a slight improvement in the Preakness, that would have been a promising sign.

• Keep in mind, Bob Baffert said after Justify’s Kentucky Derby win he wasn’t blowing hard. However, after the Preakness Baffert indicated that Justify received his stiffest test yet.

• Let’s also keep in mind that by just about anyone’s assessment, this year’s 3 year-old crop is one of the deepest in many, many years. There are rested top Derby runners ready to submit peak performances off the five weeks of rest.  In addition, with Noble Indy entered, we can be assured of some early pressure, thereby preventing a controlled pace situation for Justify.

So, will he or won't he?

If Justify wins the Triple Crown it will go down as one of the greatest such accomplishments, and a far more impressive outcome than what was achieved by America Pharoah just 3 years ago.  All Justify has to overcome is plenty of racing compressed into a short time period, progressively declining Brisnet Speed Ratings, one of the deepest 3 year-old crops in 20 years, a pace that will be honest and a track surface that will be deep and tiring, unlike the sealed sloppy surfaces in the Derby and Preakness over which he clearly excelled.  

The best shot Mike Smith has to win the Belmont is to just hit “go” right out of the gate, force others to run with him early and hopefully put those away. Justify could catch a breather in the middle part of the race and then dig in with everything he has to hold off the late comers in that critical final quarter of a mile.

Make no mistake: This is one brilliantly talented colt and is indeed one of those special ones. But like any exceptionally talented athlete, he's not invincible. And now we wait.

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