Clark fair odds: Who Dey think gonna beat that Ohio-bred?

The good news is the answer to my headline question is that a lot of people think most horses in the Grade 2 Clark Stakes on Friday at Churchill Downs are capable of beating Who Dey.

But when I pick a 30-1 morning-line horse, it is not always about doing so with the idea that he has to win. At the expected price, liking a horse such as Who Dey is more about signaling a wagering opportunity with him than him having to win.

To be sure, I will have win money on him at anything at or near my fair odds of 17-1. But as the projected longest shot in the field by a wide margin (the co-seventh choices are 12-1 each), Who Dey is playable in all wagers with most contenders.

So what's to like? Well, the field is super competitive on Ragozin Figures with only two of the other eight entrants, Hit Show and Magnitude, running faster than Who Dey did last out. That effort came in the Best of Ohio Endurance, a race Who Dey won both last year and this year. Unlike last year, however, when that race ended his season, Who Dey is running again, which is a big vote of confidence from trainer Tommy Drury Jr.

Having to give three pounds to Magnitude isn't great, but Who Dey does get four pounds from Hit Show. I've mentioned those two twice now already, and that's because they are the most likely winners here. I will bet Who Dey to win and key in the exotics with Hit Show and Magnitude.

Hit Show I see as slightly more likely than Magnitude. He's better drawn and capable of throwing a bigger number than Magnitude if they both had to throw down.

Gosger at 4-1 and Rattle N Roll at 7-2 on the morning line will have to beat me. Those prices are way too low against this group. First Mission and Chunk of Gold are intriguing. Both have name recognition that could attract money. But if they're really the fifth and sixth choices as the morning line suggests, then there could be opportunity with them, especially with Who Dey.

Cooke Creek and Willy D's looked overmatched here and at 12-1 morning line offer little hope of having the needed value.