Fair odds: Look past Churchill chalk to play Clark Stakes

Hit Show certainly has earned his favoritism in the Grade 2, $600,000 Clark Stakes on Friday at Churchill Downs. 

The 4-year-old Candy Ride colt has won three consecutive graded stakes with consistent mid-pack performances before digging in gamely in the lane to win by less than a length each time. Those wins earned Brisnet Speed Ratings of 101 or 102, and there is no reason to think he can’t run similarly well here.

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The issue as a bettor is similarly well does not guarantee victory, and I expect Hit Show to be lower than his morning-line odds, which makes him a tough bet. Several others like Crupi, Rattle N Roll and Cooke Creek have run as fast as Hit Show, although not as consistently.

And then there’s Most Wanted. Like Hit Show, Most Wanted is a Brad Cox-trained Candy Ride colt. Unlike Hit Show, Most Wanted is on a four-race win streak since starting his career. In other words, he is undefeated.

What’s more is the last two of those wins in the Ellis Park and Oklahoma derbies were as fast or faster than Hit Show’s performances. The 3-year-old also gets three pounds from his stablemate with jockey Florent Géroux staying aboard Most Wanted after also riding Hit Show in all three of his graded-stakes wins.

I could see Most Wanted attracting a lot of money for those reasons, but others like Hit Show and Rattle N Roll have name recognition. Trainer Ken McPeek considered Rattle N Roll for the Breeders’ Cup Classic after all, skipping the Fayette, which Hit Show won.

I think I’ll get my price on Most Wanted and look to play him to win and use heavily in multi-race sequences. Cooke Creek lost by a neck to Hit Show after setting the pace in the Lukas Classic (G2) last out and might be more relaxed here on a track rated as fast. He is in the exotics mix for me at the very least.