Claiming Crown Jewel fair odds: Use these long-shot keys

Big fields lead to bigger payouts. It sounds obvious but until I actually plotted the average exacta payout by field size I had no idea what a difference each horse makes per race.

This was on my mind because the Claiming Crown program Saturday at Churchill Downs features an average field size of 13.3 horses per race, by far the most among the tracks running in North America that day.

The last seven races on the day all have at least 14 entrants with the biggest one of all, the $200,000 Claiming Crown Jewel, one of six to oversubscribe. We zeroed in on that race, the 10th of 11, because of an opportunity to use multiple long shots in a big field.

Some mix of Happy Strike, Overstatement and Welaka interests me most. They are 15-, 20- and 20-1 on Mike Battaglia's morning line, respectively, and all fair value in the 11- to 14-1 range. Normally I'm a proponent of "boxes are for shoes," but buttoning up just six of the 182 exacta combinations with this trio seems prudent.

Of the horses expected to take money – Battaglia has five entrants between 7-2 and 6-1 on his 133-point line – two I like, one is OK and the other two are throw-outs. The throw-outs are not usable under any circumstance by the other three are playable with the above-mentioned longer shots.

Bernin Hot is my most likely winner given his speed and experience at both the track and distance. Luis Saez staying aboard off the win last out at this track and distance appeals to me, and this is a legitimate gate-to-wire threat.

Navajo Warrior is the 7-2 morning-line favorite, but I expect will be close in the wagering with our top pick. Like Bernin Hot, Navajo Warrior retains his jockey off a win here, though that was at 1 1/16 miles, and he has never been this far.

Point Dume is even further outside and an intriguing shipper for a high percentage trainer. His style is similar to Bernin Hot, but the distance and post 13 make that more questionable. I would not want to lose to this one if a horse like Welaka were second, and he makes sense to use alongside longer prices.

Neither Cadet Corps nor Double Your Money interest me at the expected prices. Cadet Corps is going to get overbet on his class given the high-level races this summer. Double Your Money seems to be distance-minded but there is real pace here and he will be left with too much to do.