Cigar Mile fair odds: Locked is loaded for toughest test yet

New York Racing Association morning-line odds maker David Aragona said it best about the Grade 2 Cigar Mile when he posted on X, "This was a tough one."

A fantastic, competitive field of 11 is expected to face starter's orders on Saturday at Aqueduct, and Aragona's morning line has five of the entrants at 6-1 or below with Post Time the 7-2 favorite.

My fair odds agree on the competitiveness, though the vagaries of takeout have me assessing those five contenders at between 4-1 and 7-1. As a bettor, the good news is I see Locked as the most likely winner. Whether that translates to value in the win pool remains to be seen, but I am absolutely singling this horse in the grand-slam wager.

Locked made his first start since finishing third in the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile with an impressive 7 1/2-length victory in an optional-claiming allowance event at Aqueduct. That was at seven furlongs and earned a great Ragozin figure. Now he gets an extra furlong second off the layoff and looks poised to improve, which definitely makes him a likely winner here, especially given the likely pace.

Book'em Danno is another 3-year-old to be bullish on. If the money gravitates toward the older horses, then he might be worth a play in race. But I definitely prefer Locked, who is a longer price on the morning line.

Señor Buscador is the fifth choice on the morning line and has the same benefit as Locked from a pace perspective. To be fair, Post Time does too, but he will be a shorter price.

Mullikin is stretching out to a mile for the first time and is definitely one of the faster horses in this race at his best. But he will have company up front while having to go farther than he ever has had to go.